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Expected Value
+---------------------------------------+
| |
| EV = probability x value |
| |
| [ plot of land ] |
| |
| 10% chance: $100,000 gold inside |
| |
| EV = 10% x $100,000 |
| = $10,000 [x] |
| |
+---------------------------------------+
There’s this thing called expected value, whereby you multiply the chance of a thing happening by how much you’d care if it did. Say there’s a plot of land with a 10% chance of $100,000 in gold under it. That land is worth $10,000, on average, which is awkward, because you cannot dig up an average. You dig up either gold or disappointment.
The Hell Calculation
+---------------------------------------+
| |
| [ eternal suffering ] |
| |
| probability(hell) = 0.00001% |
| |
| expected value = 0.00001% |
| x -infinity |
| = -infinity |
| |
| worth any finite cost to prevent |
| |
+---------------------------------------+
There’s a non-zero possibility that hell exists and you and everyone you love are going to die and burn in it forever. Hell is, by most accounts, very hot. On a long enough timeline, this becomes a drawback.
Additionally, when I was a kid my great-grandfather had Alzheimer’s disease or something and he looked like he was in hell. All the time. He was miserable and he was like this for very many years. And so there’s this thing called time dilation whereby when you’re dreaming a few minutes can seem like a few hours. There’s like a drug called salvia divinorum where some people have taken it and they said they felt like they were being crushed to death for millennia. Okay, so there’s no way to disprove the possibility that your brain’s going to get messed up in a manner that causes you great pain and confusion for perceptually an indefinite amount of time. Very very very very long time, maybe eternity. So this is like kind of a possibility of a hell on Earth. So even if it is highly unlikely that this occurs, like even if there’s a 0.00001% chance of this occurring, the expected value of this is infinity terrible.
The Heaven Calculation
+---------------------------------------+
| |
| [ indefinite pleasant existence ] |
| |
| probability(good) = 0.00001% |
| |
| expected value = 0.00001% |
| x +infinity |
| = +infinity |
| |
| worth any finite cost to pursue |
| |
+---------------------------------------+
Okay, there’s this thing called biotechnology. So I don’t know if you’ve ever taken any drugs. I certainly haven’t. But I hear tell that they can make you feel very good. Okay, so this tells me that humans through the ability of manipulating atoms and molecules in their brains can make themselves feel very good. Additionally, due to the phenomenon of time dilation, it is apparently possible that through some sort of mysterious biochemical action, the perception of time can be extended. And additionally there are numerous animals or living things that are immortal, like jellyfish. This tells me that with sufficient resources and effort and scientists, one could figure out how to produce a very nice, pleasant experience for an indefinitely long period of time. Okay so these are your options. So like the expected value of doing this, given that it can go on for an unlimited period of time, is infinitely good. Even if there is an extremely low probability that anything I’m saying is true and we can achieve this. Even if there’s a 0.00001% chance that this is possible, the expected value is infinite goodness.
Two Infinities
+---------------------------------------+
| |
| value of preventing hell = +infinity |
| value of achieving heaven = +infinity |
| |
| total = two infinities of motivation |
| |
| |
+---------------------------------------+
So your job as President of Earth Optimization Services carries two infinities of importance: one heaven you could lose, one hell you could dodge. Most jobs offer dental.
Everyone Is Retarded
+---------------------------------------+
| |
| SMART [##################] |
| dolphins [####..............] |
| humans [###...............] |
| monkeys [##................] |
| snails [#.................] |
| |
| (perfect info + logic = 100%) |
| |
| everyone is retarded relative to |
| perfect rationality |
| (especially the people in charge) |
| |
+---------------------------------------+
Okay so there’s these other things on Earth called humans and like they’re all kind of stupid. Like there is this thing called information and logic. And so if you have perfect information and perfect logic, that is what I would consider to be called smart. So if you enjoy these two things, my hat’s off to you and I would definitely like to meet you. But my theory is no such human exists. This means that all humans suffer from some degree of relative mental retardation relative to smartness. So if you hold your hand up by the top of your head, let’s say that’s smartness. Then humans… so like snails might be down around your shoes or something. And then monkeys might be somewhere around the middle of your shin. And then humans might be a little bit above that. And then maybe dolphins are a little bit above the humans. Okay, so humans are like varying degrees of retarded.
You Pay $36.5 trillion a Year for Health and Wealth and Get War and Disease
YOU PAY $36.5 trillion A YEAR FOR HEALTH AND WEALTH AND GET WAR AND DISEASE
YOU PAY: $36.5 trillion / yr
FORCED SERVICE: general welfare
Since 1900: $170 trillion spent murdering
310 million of their own employers.
Any other employee: terminated.
These guys: a $1T raise every year.
So apparently someone decided that part of promoting the general welfare of the employers was murdering them, occasionally, in batches. Like we made this thing called governments that are supposed to promote the general welfare, which is I guess median health and wealth. Or more specifically if you want to measure it, median health-adjusted life expectancy and median after-tax inflation-adjusted income. So theoretically, if you were running one of these governments, you would measure these things. Then you would try to make policies and allocate resources to different activities and then see which ones maximized these two measurable outcomes which you are trying to improve. For some reason governments do not do this. We have like 195 countries and hundreds of years of data about different public policies and budget allocations and so we can analyze this and determine which policies maximize the health and wealth of the population and then we could like just do those policies.
I have done this and like relative to the optimal policies that could be implemented, Earth currently wastes about $101 trillion a year on idiotic policies. So this compounds. And so these governments that we pay about $36.5 trillion a year to provide this service of promoting general welfare for us, since 1900 they have spent $170 trillion of this murdering 310 million of their employers, which I feel would be grounds for termination probably under any employment contract any human has ever signed on Earth. But for some reason we just keep giving them an extra $36.5 trillion every year. So they suck at it.
Why Are They So Bad At It?
+---------------------------------------+
| |
| SKILL A: getting into the room |
| -------------------------------- |
| lying, schmoozing, fundraising |
| government SELECTS FOR THIS |
| |
| SKILL B: making good decisions |
| -------------------------------- |
| data, logic, second-order effects |
| government does NOT select for this |
| |
+---------------------------------------+
So the question is why do they suck so much? So the reason they suck at it is because the humans that are running it are retarded. The humans that are good at getting in charge of deciding what policies and budgets to have are not necessarily good at deciding policies and budgets, but they are smart, or relatively less retarded, at taking the actions required to get themselves into the boardrooms or buildings where these decisions are made. There’s a common misconception that there is such a thing as smartness and that the people who are making these decisions are smart. But history books are a catalog of humans being retarded for a very long time and then occasionally becoming slightly less retarded.
Your Government Runs Without Feedback
+---------------------------------------+
| |
| closed loop (your oven): [x] |
| |
| input --> process --> output |
| ^ | |
| +------- sensor ------+ |
| |
| open loop (war on drugs): |
| |
| "end drugs" --> $1T --> [???] |
| (no sensor) |
| (no feedback) |
| |
| deaths: 1,000 -> 107,000 / yr |
| adjustment: none. 53 years. |
| |
+---------------------------------------+
So the question is not just why they make bad decisions. It is why they keep making the same bad decision after the evidence is in. Your oven has a sensor. It measures the temperature, compares it to what you asked for, and adjusts until they match. Every machine you own does this. Your air conditioner, your cruise control, your refrigerator, your toilet. The toilet knows when to stop filling. Your government does not know when to stop filling.
The War on Drugs: roughly $50 billion a year for 53 years. Overdose deaths went from about 1,000 a year to about 107,000 a year. No sensor. No adjustment. The budget increased.
The reason there is no sensor is that the people whose job it is to install one are also the people who profit from the temperature being wrong. The pharmaceutical industry does not profit from cures. The weapons industry does not profit from peace. The lobbying industry does not profit from a government that works. The sensor would end their business model. So there is no sensor. Earth Optimization Services installs the thermostat.
Ethyl Gasoline Corporation (1924)
+---------------------------------------+
| |
| OPTION A: ethanol |
| -> no patent -> no extra money |
| -> nobody gets brain damage |
| |
| OPTION B: tetraethyl lead (patent) |
| -> royalties [chosen] |
| -> IQ drops 10 pts globally |
| -> massive crime wave |
| -> trillions in lost GDP |
| |
| chose B. for 70 years. |
| |
+---------------------------------------+
So one example is the case of the Ethyl Gasoline Corporation. So in 1924 they had cars. They put gasoline in the engines. Made them go. But there’s a problem because gasoline combusted prematurely and messed up the engines over time. It was called knocking. You had two options here. One, you put ethanol in the gasoline to prevent this knocking and messing up the engines. Or you could put this thing called tetraethyl lead in the gasoline to prevent the problem. The benefits of using tetraethyl lead in the gasoline were that the Ethyl Gasoline Corporation, a joint venture of General Motors and DuPont, had a patent on tetraethyl lead so they made a lot of money off of licensing this. Like putting all this lead in the gas which solved the knocking problem. Okay, the problem is it made everyone increasingly retarded. It decreased human IQ on average 10 points, resulted in a great deal of crime which is very costly to society. And a scientist named Clair Patterson discovered this and said, you know, it would be preferable if you kind of like didn’t make everyone retarded and used ethanol instead. Millions of dollars, possibly billions in today’s money, were spent lobbying and controlling the government so that they could continue to put lead in gasoline and give themselves brain damage and everyone they ever loved brain damage. And so they did this for about 70 years up until 1996 when eventually human retardation declined sufficiently to terminate this practice.
Nobody Was Even Trying to Be Evil
+---------------------------------------+
| |
| shareholders of Ethyl Corp: |
| would have been 20-60% richer |
| if they had never used the lead |
| |
| they hurt themselves |
| they hurt everyone they loved |
| nobody made them stop |
| |
| for 70 years |
| because: assumed the people in |
| charge were not retarded |
| |
+---------------------------------------+
So there’s an important lesson here. A lot of people attribute this problem to selfishness and greed, like the diffuse costs of everybody being retarded and the global economy losing tens or hundreds of trillions of dollars in potential GDP from everyone not being so retarded. If you do the math, even the shareholders of Ethyl Gasoline Corporation would have been 23.2% (95% CI: 8.41%-52.4%) richer if they had used that money spent on making everyone retarded and manipulating the government to allow them to continue making everyone retarded, instead of on things that are useful to society such as biomedical research. In the long run, they had to do this transition anyway, and in the long run even they themselves would have been vastly richer for not doing this. But for the fact that people assumed that the people in charge were not retarded.
Ignaz Semmelweis
+---------------------------------------+
| |
| 1847: wash hands before delivery |
| -> maternal death rate: 18% -> 2% |
| |
| doctors: offended |
| reward for discovery: asylum |
| then: beaten to death by guards |
| |
| result: millions of preventable |
| deaths over decades |
| reason: unwashed hands |
| |
| calibrate your trust accordingly |
| |
+---------------------------------------+
A doctor named Ignaz Semmelweis discovered that if you wash your goddamn hands before delivering a baby, there was only like a 2% chance the mother and the baby would die of sepsis after the delivery. He instituted this rule in his hospitals. The doctors, being retarded, were offended by the suggestion that they were filthy and causing their patients to die. As a reward for this discovery, they put him in a mental institution and the guards beat him to death. They then continued to not wash their hands before delivering babies, killing tens or maybe hundreds of millions of mothers and babies because they didn’t want to wash their goddamn hands.
The reason I tell you this story is because you need to stop assuming the people in charge know what they are doing. Scientists and math and data are smarter than the gut instincts of whatever humans happen to be good enough at lying their way into power.
The Military-Industrial Complex Is Ethyl Corp at Civilizational Scale
THE MILITARY-INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX IS ETHYL CORP AT CIVILIZATIONAL SCALE
4 billion sick right now.
550 million full-time caregivers.
Total cost: $14.9 trillion (95% CI: $11.9 trillion-$18.3 trillion) / yr.
Possible drug-disease combos: 9.5 million
Tested: 32,500 (0.342% (95% CI: 0%-1%))
Queue at 15/yr: 443 years
Pentagon unaccounted: $2.46 trillion
= 547 years of clinical trials in a black hole.
The war industry is the biggest one, but it is not the only one. Today, 4 billion people are sick with chronic or infectious diseases. There are 550 million people whose entire job is taking care of them. The cost is roughly $14.9 trillion (95% CI: $11.9 trillion-$18.3 trillion) a year. There are 9.5 million possible drug-disease combinations we could test. We have tested 32,500. That is 0.342% (95% CI: 0%-1%) of the space. At the current rate of 15 new disease-treatment combinations approved per year, it will take 443 years to clear the existing queue. The $2.46 trillion that the Pentagon cannot account for across 8 failed audits, all by itself, represents 547 years of clinical trials at current funding levels. This is Ignaz Semmelweis’s unwashed hands, scaled to a civilization. We have the drugs. We have the diseases. We are not checking.
What If the Shareholders Had Just Replaced the Board?
+---------------------------------------+
| |
| imagine: |
| lots of people buy Ethyl shares |
| send love letters to the board |
| "please stop giving everyone |
| brain damage" |
| buy enough shares to replace board |
| |
| result: |
| trillions richer, fewer murders, |
| faster science |
| |
| buy enough shares, replace the board |
| |
+---------------------------------------+
Okay, so back to the Ethyl Gasoline Corporation. Imagine a counterfactual universe whereby lots of humans sent love letters to the board. Like purchased shares in the Ethyl Gasoline Corporation and sent love letters to the board members saying, I love you very much and I do not want you and your family to get brain damage, so please stop putting lead in the gasoline giving everyone brain damage. And there’s this thing called shareholder activism whereby you can buy enough shares to replace the board with people that are slightly less retarded. If they had done this, humanity would have been trillions of dollars richer, there would have been massively less crime (all those murders and thefts that resulted from everybody being retarded), and trillions of dollars in wealth would have been created from people being better at their jobs and making better decisions generally.
And They Built 122 Apocalypses for One Civilization
AND THEY BUILT 122 APOCALYPSES FOR ONE CIVILIZATION
12,241 nuclear warheads.
~100 needed to end civilization.
= 122 apocalypses on standby.
$4.4 billion (95% CI: $3.74 billion-$5.06 billion)/yr in corporate lobbying controls the
government that bought all 12,241 of them.
The military-industrial complex = Ethyl Corp, at planetary scale.
So today is the same situation. There are corporations with boards run by people who are retarded relative to perfect information and perfect rationality. And there is plenty of data to make better decisions than these boards are making. Case in point, making 122 apocalypses worth of nuclear bombs when you only have one civilization to apocalypse.
Their Shareholders Would Be Richer Too
THEIR SHAREHOLDERS WOULD BE RICHER TOO
Current path:
extract money from a shrinking economy,
then die of a curable disease anyway.
Better path:
point the lobbying at real growth instead.
The average person ends up 1.89x richer by year 20.
The military contractors' own revenue goes up too.
Same math as the leaded-gas company.
They are hurting themselves.
The math works for the shareholders too. The same model that says the 1% treaty170 171 makes the average person 1.89x richer by year 20 says the military contractors’ own shareholders come out ahead in the redirected world. They are extracting value from a shrinking, destabilized economy. Redirect the lobbying toward the policies that grow the economy and their revenues can grow with it. Their stock can appreciate. Their employees live longer. The Ethyl Gasoline Corporation’s shareholders would have been 23.2% (95% CI: 8.41%-52.4%) richer if they had never put lead in the gas. This is not charity. This is what the math says.
Who Loses?
WHO LOSES?
Nobody. That is the strange part.
Everyone is handed a raise. The only way to lose
is to turn it down.
The weapons companies keep 99% of the budget. You are asking for 1%. Their stock rises because the whole economy grows. Their shareholders end up richer. Their employees live longer because the diseases that were going to kill them get cured. The patients obviously win. The taxpayers stop paying for 121 spare apocalypses they did not need. Even the politicians who are currently bought get offered a better deal: campaign contributions from a growing economy plus they get to take credit for curing diseases, which is popular with voters. Every single group ends up better off. The only person who loses is the one who is handed a raise and says no.
WWII: The Cut That Caused the Biggest Boom
WWII: THE CUT THAT CAUSED THE BIGGEST BOOM
1939: the US military cost $29 billion -- about 3% of today.
It won World War II in four years.
After the war, the US cut military spending 87.6%.
What followed was the biggest economic boom in American history.
Today: about a trillion dollars more than the WWII peak,
cannot keep one shipping lane open, 8 failed audits in a row.
In 1939 the United States military spending was about 3% of its current levels. They won World War II in four years. After the war, the United States cut military spending by 87.6%. What followed was the greatest economic expansion in American history. The economy did not collapse. It boomed. Today we spend a trillion dollars more and we can’t even keep the Strait of Hormuz open, because in 1939 you had to be good at building things to get government contracts and today you have to be good at lobbying. The hundred billion dollars a year the Pentagon just loses into a black hole and the thousand-dollar screws and the eight consecutive failed audits are not accidents. That is what a system that selects for corruption instead of competence looks like.
The Legal Mechanism
THE LEGAL MECHANISM
fiduciary duty -> act in shareholders' interest
dead shareholder -> net worth $0
waste: $101 trillion (95% CI: $59.6 trillion-$161 trillion) / yr on policies that kill them
the breach is sitting on the waste.
A board is legally required to act in its shareholders’ financial interest. A dead shareholder is worth nothing. Disease kills the customers, the workers, and the shareholders themselves, while the government wastes about $101 trillion (95% CI: $59.6 trillion-$161 trillion) a year that could be curing it. Point a sliver of that waste at clinical trials and every shareholder ends up richer and alive to enjoy it.
12 People, $12.5 Million, 3 Board Seats at Exxon
12 PEOPLE, $12.5 MILLION, 3 BOARD SEATS AT EXXON
2021: a tiny investment firm called Engine No. 1.
12 people. $12.5 million.
They owned 0.02% of ExxonMobil, a $400 billion company.
Result: 3 seats on Exxon's board.
Their argument: your strategy is destroying long-term value.
Vanguard and BlackRock, who own 60%, agreed and voted with them.
The stock went up.
Someone has already done a version of this. In 2021, a 12-person firm called Engine No. 1 spent $12.5 million campaigning to replace board members while holding 0.02% of ExxonMobil’s shares. They won 3 board seats. The argument was: your strategy is destroying long-term value for the people who own this company. Vanguard and BlackRock, who hold roughly 60% of ExxonMobil, agreed and voted with them. $12.5 million.
Buy the Shares, Redirect the Lobbyists
BUY THE SHARES, REDIRECT THE LOBBYISTS
buy shares -> shareholder rights -> board seats
-> redirect lobbyists -> better policy
using tools every shareholder already has.
Earth Optimization Services purchases shares in the corporations that currently spend $4.4 billion (95% CI: $3.74 billion-$5.06 billion) lobbying your government. Then it tells their lobbyists: here are the policies that actually make your shareholders richer. We know which ones work because we have data from hundreds of countries over hundreds of years. The lobbyists do what lobbyists do, except now they are lobbying for policies that work.
Buy One Share and Write a Letter
BUY ONE SHARE AND WRITE A LETTER
First target: Huntington Ingalls, the only company that
builds US aircraft carriers ($10B). The Navy can't shop elsewhere.
Buy one share (~$200). Write a letter to the board.
Each win buys credibility. Credibility funds the next target.
Then pharma. Then tech. Then oil.
Start with Huntington Ingalls Industries, the sole builder of aircraft carriers in the United States. The whole company is worth roughly $10 billion. The Navy cannot buy carriers from anyone else. Buy one share for about $200 and write a letter to the board. Each win creates credibility, capital, and attention. Each funds the next. If someone copies the strategy, it works faster, and if a competitor buys the same stocks, your shares go up.
What It Costs To Buy The Companies That Run The Government
WHAT IT COSTS
Military-industrial complex, board seats:
$48.4 billion (0.0159% of all money on Earth)
EVERY industry that owns the government at once:
$884 billion (0.29%)
The military-industrial complex is the one part you can actually buy outright, and it’s cheap. Enough stock to win board seats costs $48.4 billion. That is 0.0159% of all the money invested on the planet. Enough to win board seats in every industry that owns your government, weapons, pharma, tech, insurance, oil, all at once, costs $884 billion. That is 0.29% of all the money in the world. And you couldn’t buy most of these companies if you tried. Zuckerberg and the Google founders and Larry Ellison kept the votes for themselves. So you don’t buy them. You out-vote them.
Where The Profit Comes From
WHERE THE PROFIT COMES FROM
better management --. sell high (worth more)
|
+-- the profit is this gap
|
poor management --' buy low (cheap)
Same thing, bigger:
optimized governance --. worth a lot more after
|
+-- gap: $101 trillion (95% CI: $59.6 trillion-$161 trillion) / yr
|
poor governance --' buy in here, cheap
Warren Buffett got rich doing one boring thing over and over: buy a company with bad management, give it good management, and pocket the gap. Earth Optimization Services uses the very same strategy. It just fixes the governance instead of the management, and it does it to the whole economy instead of one company. That works because BlackRock and Vanguard already own the whole economy. Nobody at either firm has done the math on what that means. Most investors guess which company beats which. BlackRock and Vanguard skipped that. They bought all of them. Every supplier, every lender, every insurer. They own a slice of everything. One company stealing from another nets them zero. They own both sides. They only make money when the whole economy gets bigger.
The thing that decides how big the economy is? Governance. You can test this in your head. Take everything you own and move it to Somalia. Same stocks, same buildings. It’s worth almost nothing. Warlords eat most of it. Move it to the United States. Worth orders of magnitude more. The only thing that changed was who runs the place.
What’s it worth under a government better than this one? That gap is $101 trillion (95% CI: $59.6 trillion-$161 trillion) a year. You are not picking winners. You are fixing the room they all sit in.
Four Earths, Twenty Years
FOUR EARTHS, TWENTY YEARS
optimal governance
/ $10.7 quadrillion (95% CI: $3.95 quadrillion-$28 quadrillion)
/
treaty /
/ $322 trillion (95% CI: $245 trillion-$404 trillion)
today ---.......... $188 trillion
$115 trillion fantasy 2.5%
\
\ collapse by 2037
\
X Somalia, everywhere
the alpha: human stupidity.
the treaty is not the optimistic bet. it is the hedge.
So I am going to show you the only chart you need. Four lines. Same starting point. Twenty years.
The gray dotted line is what your economists project. 2.5% growth, smooth and steady, reaching $188 trillion by year 20. This requires twenty consecutive years of nothing going wrong. Your species has never done this. Not once. It is the fantasy.
The red line going down is what is actually happening. Your destructive economy172, military spending plus cybercrime, is already 11.5% of GDP and growing faster than your productive economy. Every collapsed civilization in history, Soviet Union, Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Somalia, crossed the same threshold. The death spiral starts at 35% extractive burden. You hit that by 2037. That is not a prediction. That is the current trend line, extended, using the growth rates you already measured last year. The line goes to zero because that is what happens when stealing pays better than building: everyone rational switches to stealing, and then there is nothing left to steal.
The blue line going up is the treaty. Redirect 1% of the weapons budget to clinical trials. It compounds at 5.28% (95% CI: 3.85%-6.48%) and reaches $322 trillion (95% CI: $245 trillion-$404 trillion) by year 20. The average person ends up 1.89x richer than on the fantasy baseline, and infinitely richer than on the collapse line, because infinity times zero is still zero and alive beats dead in most financial models.
The gold line is what happens if you fix governance entirely. Full optimization. That one reaches $10.7 quadrillion (95% CI: $3.95 quadrillion-$28 quadrillion), which is 33.2x (95% CI: 12.7x-83.4x) the treaty line. “Stop being stupid” turns out to be the most aggressive growth strategy available to your species.
Now here is the part that should make you laugh, if you are an investor. In every other asset class, alpha comes from secret information, proprietary models, a faster computer. Here the alpha is: your civilization is governed by idiots, and the returns from not being governed by idiots are larger than any trade in the history of money. This is not a hidden signal. Everyone knows the government is bad at its job. The trade is: make it less bad, and own the upside. The gap between the red line and the blue line is not a bet. It is a hedge. You are not betting that things will get better. You are hedging against the certainty that they will get worse if nobody does anything. And by the way, if nobody does anything, your portfolio goes to zero anyway, because portfolios require a functioning civilization, and the red line does not have one.
The Flywheel: Why It Speeds Up
THE FLYWHEEL: WHY IT SPEEDS UP
Win one board fight and three things happen:
The stock goes up -> more money for the next fight.
Better policy -> bigger economy.
Bigger economy -> every stock worth more.
Each feeds the other two.
You kick it once.
Win one board fight and three things happen. The stock goes up, so more people buy in, which funds the next fight. The lobbying you redirected gets good policy passed, which makes the whole economy bigger. A bigger economy makes every company worth more, including the ones you already hold. Each feeds the other two. You kick it once and it speeds up on its own.
The Failure Mode
+---------------------------------------+
| |
| IF the campaign fails: |
| war continues |
| more contracts |
| your shares go up |
| |
| you hold monopoly contractors |
| whose customers cannot leave |
| |
| (the Navy is not going to buy |
| carriers from Toyota) |
| |
| failure is not automatic zero |
| |
+---------------------------------------+
The failure mode is not automatic zero. If this company fails to end war, war continues. War continuing can mean more missile contracts. You have purchased a portfolio of companies with customers that are hard to replace, while also buying the chance that governance pressure works. The downside is not a blank hole with a receipt in it.
Competition Makes You Richer
+---------------------------------------+
| |
| normal business: |
| competitor enters market |
| -> steals customers |
| -> your revenue drops |
| |
| EOS: |
| competitor buys same stocks |
| -> more demand for shares you hold |
| -> shares you hold can climb |
| |
| only investment where competitors |
| succeeding = you winning |
| |
+---------------------------------------+
Normally, when you get competitors, they steal your market share, so you get fewer sales and the value of your investment can go down. If somebody decides this is a good idea and competes with Earth Optimization Services, that can be good, because it means there is greater demand for the same shares you own, which can lift their value. Competition validates the thesis instead of destroying it, which is a nice change from normal capitalism, where everyone spends the working day trying to bite each other to death inside a spreadsheet.
Money Doesn’t Buy Votes
MONEY DOESN'T BUY VOTES
money buys profit. not votes. not control.
one civic vote per human. not for sale.
If this company actually pulls it off and ends up controlling the companies that control the governments, it becomes very powerful. And concentrated power has a terrible track record. Every genocide, every unjust war, was started by some small group that had the power to start it. None of them were ever started by a public vote. People do not vote to be marched into a famine. So the rule here is simple: your money buys you a share of the profit, not extra civic votes or corporate control. The decisions get made one civic vote per human, and those votes are not for sale. You cannot buy the steering wheel, no matter how many shares you own.
What The First Money Buys
WHAT THE FIRST MONEY BUYS
$500K: proof budget.
stay alive, form the company, buy small positions,
send the first serious letters.
$1M: target budget.
18-24 months of lean runway,
one AI-multiplied engineer,
first HII-style campaign proof.
$2M: oxygen.
more reserve, cleaner compliance,
fewer existential meetings about invoices.
This money does NOT buy civic votes or control.
It buys non-voting EOS equity.
Private offering documents decide the final terms, and accepted private investors must be verified accredited investors. The pitch version is simpler: the first EOS equity raise is meant to buy time, tools, legal cleanliness, and the first proof that shareholder pressure can redirect lobbying. At the low end, it is a proof budget. At the target, it is a real lean operating budget. If demand is larger, the extra oxygen goes to reserve, compliance, and stronger campaign proof, and not, under any circumstances, to a head office with a water feature and chairs that cost more than the audit.
It does not fund the bonds, the Prize, a nonprofit, or a secret steering wheel. It funds EOS: the company, the platform, the first public-equity positions, and the first campaign evidence.
Who the Hell Is Telling You All This
+---------------------------------------+
| |
| I am just some weirdo. |
| |
| I know this sounds crazy. |
| You are right to be skeptical. |
| |
| But I followed the problem. |
| |
| sick -> data -> regulatory -> |
| resource allocation -> root cause: |
| the money points at the wrong stuff |
| |
+---------------------------------------+
So look, I am just some weirdo on the internet saying a lot of things that sound extremely crazy. You are right to be skeptical. I do not know if this will work. I think it probably will, because the math is pretty clear, but I have been wrong before and I will be wrong again about something.
What I can tell you is how I got here.
I got my degree in electrical engineering and physics. Then I went to work at an industrial testing laboratory for about ten years doing root cause failure analysis. A turbine explodes, a power plant fails, a bridge cracks. You get the data, you find the actual cause, you write the report. You do not write the cause that makes the client feel better. You write the one the evidence points to.
Then I got a bunch of diseases. Psoriasis, arthritis, depression, and some gross stuff with my intestines that I will not describe because you are possibly eating. I wanted to do a root cause failure analysis on myself. So I built a sort of a decentralized FDA platform and apps that collected about 12 million data points on symptoms of illness and food and drug intake from about 10,000 people. Then I applied causal inference to determine the change from baseline in symptom severity following administration of various foods and drugs, and generated outcome labels for thousands of foods and drugs and treatment rankings. You can see them at studies.dfda.earth173,174.
And there is a lot you can learn about how to fix yourself from that data. But the biggest thing I learned is that for a lot of people with a lot of diseases, the existing treatments do not make a ton of difference. The treatments that could actually fix you do not exist yet because nobody has run the trials.
So then I thought the problem was the FDA. The regulatory barriers are massive. It takes 14 years and $2.6 billion to get a drug approved. There are thousands of potentially useful drug-disease combinations that nobody has tested because the testing costs too much and takes too long.
But then I realized it was not just a regulatory problem either. It is a resource allocation problem. Your government spends 604 times more on the capacity to kill people than on clinical trials to cure the diseases that are about 30 million times more likely to kill you than a terrorist. The regulations are bad because the lobbying that writes them is funded by industries that profit from the regulations being bad. The FDA is slow because nobody with real money wants it to be fast.
Root cause: the money points at the wrong things. The same root cause as the Ethyl Gasoline Corporation. The same root cause as Ignaz Semmelweis’s unwashed hands. The same root cause, at civilizational scale, running for decades, killing millions of people a year, because the companies that profit from the current arrangement spend $4.4 billion (95% CI: $3.74 billion-$5.06 billion) a year making sure it does not change.
Invest
INVEST
Earth Optimization Services. Buy shares in the company.
upside: the campaigns work, the shares rise,
and you got rich ending war and disease.
downside: none of it works. Your money is still
sitting in shares of military contractors and pharma companies.
EOS liquidates the portfolio. You get back whatever
those stocks returned. No carry. No management fee.
You accidentally bought a weapons ETF with no fees.
minimum: $25,000 (accredited investors only).
the SEC protects less wealthy Americans from the
risk of making money. We go public as fast as
possible so everyone can buy in at $5.
returns are projected, not promised.
So what Earth Optimization Services actually does is reclaim all of these currently wasted resources, all of this money that’s being wasted on thousand-dollar screws and lost in Pentagon black holes and spent on 121 unnecessary apocalypses, and return it to the shareholders. Which is you. All of you. And then you allocate it via the free market, which is the thing that we already know works better than central planning. So instead of 535 people in Congress deciding what to do with your money based on who gave them the most lobbying money, you decide what to do with your money based on what you actually need. And some of you will buy healthcare and some of you will fund research and some of you will buy more bombs if you want, but at least it will be your choice.
Full terms and the investment calculator: Earth Optimization Fund.
You Are Already a Humanity Manager
+---------------------------------------+
| |
| you are a Humanity Manager at EOS |
| 1 civic vote, equal to every human |
| |
| |
| your job: help figure out the |
| optimal policies and be nice to |
| each other in this workplace |
| which is Earth |
| |
+---------------------------------------+
Additionally, whether or not you invest, you are already a Humanity Manager at Earth Optimization Services, which comes with one civic vote, not a corporate share, given equally to every human and impossible to buy or sell. Investing earns you the financial return; the vote is yours just for being a person. And as a Humanity Manager, your job is to do your best to help Earth Optimization Services determine the optimal public policies and gain board seats at all of these corporations. And just generally make the rest of humanity be nice and helpful to each other in this workplace, which is Earth.
Verification Table
| Expected value math (infinity times any probability = infinity) |
Standard probability theory |
Any introductory probability textbook |
| Time dilation in dreams |
Peer-reviewed |
Sleep research on subjective time perception |
| Salvia divinorum time distortion |
Published case reports |
Pharmacological literature on salvinorin A |
| Immortal jellyfish (Turritopsis dohrnii) |
Confirmed |
Marine biology textbooks |
| Earth wastes $101 trillion (95% CI: $59.6 trillion-$161 trillion)/year on suboptimal policies |
Derived in book |
The Political Dysfunction Tax |
| Governments spend $36.5 trillion/year |
External data |
World Bank government expense data |
| 310 million employers murdered since 1900 |
External data |
Democide statistics (R.J. Rummel); Cost of War |
| $170 trillion spent on murder since 1900 |
Derived in book |
Cost of War |
| War on Drugs: overdoses rose from ~1,000 to ~107,000/yr over 53 years |
External data |
CDC drug overdose mortality data (1970-2023); DEA budget records |
| Ethyl Gasoline Corporation / tetraethyl lead |
Historical record |
Banned in US 1996. IQ reduction documented by CDC. Discussed in I Am Retarded |
| Clair Patterson discovered lead contamination |
Historical record |
Wikipedia. Note: discovery was in the 1960s, not the 1930s. The monologue’s timeline is approximate but the substance is correct. |
| Shareholders would have been 20-60% richer without lead |
Derived |
GDP impact of lead exposure vs. ethanol alternative cost; discussed in I Am Retarded |
| Ignaz Semmelweis beaten to death in asylum |
Historical record |
Wikipedia. Died 1865. Discussed in I Am Retarded |
| 4 billion people sick with chronic or infectious diseases |
External data |
WHO Global Health Estimates; Cost of Disease |
| 550 million caregivers worldwide |
External data |
ILO care economy estimates; Cost of Disease |
| $14.9 trillion (95% CI: $11.9 trillion-$18.3 trillion) annual disease burden |
Derived |
Direct + indirect costs; Cost of Disease |
| 9.5 million possible drug-disease combinations |
Derived |
~9,500 approved drugs x ~1,000 diseases; Cost of Disease |
| 32,500 tested (0.3%) |
Derived |
ClinicalTrials.gov completed trials; Cost of Disease |
| 443 years to clear queue at 15 approvals/year |
Derived |
6,650 rare diseases / 15 FDA approvals/yr; Cost of Disease |
| $2.46 trillion Pentagon unaccounted = 546 trial years |
Derived |
DOD OIG audit findings; $2.46T / $4.5B per trial-year; Cost of War; Cost of Disease |
| 122 apocalypses worth of nuclear bombs |
Derived in book |
12,241 warheads / 100 needed for nuclear winter. The Apocalypse Markup; Cost of War |
| $4.4 billion (95% CI: $3.74 billion-$5.06 billion) in corporate lobbying |
External data |
OpenSecrets |
| US military spending 3% of current levels in 1939 |
Historical data |
$29 billion (1939) vs. $886 billion (2024), constant 2024 dollars. Cost of War |
| Won WWII in four years |
Historical record |
US entered December 1941, Japan surrendered August 1945 |
| Post-WWII military cut 88%, then biggest boom |
Historical record |
DoD budget fell from ~$900B (1945) to ~$100B (1948) in 2024 dollars; followed by 1950s-60s expansion; Cost of War |
| Median income 1.89x by year 20 under treaty |
Modeled |
The Loving Takeover; projected, not guaranteed |
| Pentagon failed 8 consecutive audits |
Government record |
DOD Office of Inspector General, FY2018-FY2025 |
| Engine No. 1: 12 people, $12.5M, 0.02%, 3 board seats |
Historical record |
Wall Street Journal, May 2021 |
| HII is sole US aircraft carrier builder |
External data |
Congressional Research Service reports on shipbuilding industrial base |
| Buy one share (~$200) and write the board; a law firm letter the board must read $5K-$15K; a campaign to put your own person on the board $100K-$500K |
Derived estimate |
HII share price (NYSE); shareholder rights law firm fee schedules; Engine No. 1 at scale was $12.5M for a $400B company |
| Boards legally required to act in shareholder interest (the 1996 Caremark ruling) |
Legal record |
In re Caremark International Inc. Derivative Litigation, 698 A.2d 959 (Del. Ch. 1996) |
| “Optimitron” policy optimization machine |
Book concept |
Optimocracy; Optimal Policy Generator |
| One civic vote per verified human |
Book concept |
Wishocracy; Earth Optimization Services |
| Shareholder activism to replace boards |
Book concept |
Loving Takeover; Lawsuit |
| First EOS equity raise target and use-of-proceeds story |
Draft offering plan, attorney review pending |
Earth Optimization Fund; binding terms stay in private offering documents |
| Planet GL-881 / Moronia similarity score |
Book concept |
Moronia; Earth Optimization Services |
1.
NIH Common Fund. NIH pragmatic trials: Minimal funding despite 30x cost advantage.
NIH Common Fund: HCS Research Collaboratory https://commonfund.nih.gov/hcscollaboratory (2025)
The NIH Pragmatic Trials Collaboratory funds trials at $500K for planning phase, $1M/year for implementation-a tiny fraction of NIH’s budget. The ADAPTABLE trial cost $14 million for 15,076 patients (= $929/patient) versus $420 million for a similar traditional RCT (30x cheaper), yet pragmatic trials remain severely underfunded. PCORnet infrastructure enables real-world trials embedded in healthcare systems, but receives minimal support compared to basic research funding. Additional sources: https://commonfund.nih.gov/hcscollaboratory | https://pcornet.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/ADAPTABLE_Lay_Summary_21JUL2025.pdf | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5604499/
.
2.
Cato Institute. Chance of dying from terrorism statistic.
Cato Institute: Terrorism and Immigration Risk Analysis https://www.cato.org/policy-analysis/terrorism-immigration-risk-analysis Chance of American dying in foreign-born terrorist attack: 1 in 3.6 million per year (1975-2015) Including 9/11 deaths; annual murder rate is 253x higher than terrorism death rate More likely to die from lightning strike than foreign terrorism Note: Comprehensive 41-year study shows terrorism risk is extremely low compared to everyday dangers Additional sources: https://www.cato.org/policy-analysis/terrorism-immigration-risk-analysis | https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/you-re-more-likely-die-choking-be-killed-foreign-terrorists-n715141
.
3.
NIH. Antidepressant clinical trial exclusion rates.
Zimmerman et al. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26276679/ (2015)
Mean exclusion rate: 86.1% across 158 antidepressant efficacy trials (range: 44.4% to 99.8%) More than 82% of real-world depression patients would be ineligible for antidepressant registration trials Exclusion rates increased over time: 91.4% (2010-2014) vs. 83.8% (1995-2009) Most common exclusions: comorbid psychiatric disorders, age restrictions, insufficient depression severity, medical conditions Emergency psychiatry patients: only 3.3% eligible (96.7% excluded) when applying 9 common exclusion criteria Only a minority of depressed patients seen in clinical practice are likely to be eligible for most AETs Note: Generalizability of antidepressant trials has decreased over time, with increasingly stringent exclusion criteria eliminating patients who would actually use the drugs in clinical practice Additional sources: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26276679/ | https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26164052/ | https://www.wolterskluwer.com/en/news/antidepressant-trials-exclude-most-real-world-patients-with-depression
.
4.
CNBC. Warren buffett’s career average investment return.
CNBC https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/05/warren-buffetts-return-tally-after-60-years-5502284percent.html (2025)
Berkshire’s compounded annual return from 1965 through 2024 was 19.9%, nearly double the 10.4% recorded by the S&P 500. Berkshire shares skyrocketed 5,502,284% compared to the S&P 500’s 39,054% rise during that period. Additional sources: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/05/warren-buffetts-return-tally-after-60-years-5502284percent.html | https://www.slickcharts.com/berkshire-hathaway/returns
.
5.
World Health Organization. WHO global health estimates 2024.
World Health Organization https://www.who.int/data/gho/data/themes/mortality-and-global-health-estimates (2024)
Comprehensive mortality and morbidity data by cause, age, sex, country, and year Global mortality: 55-60 million deaths annually Lives saved by modern medicine (vaccines, cardiovascular drugs, oncology): 12M annually (conservative aggregate) Leading causes of death: Cardiovascular disease (17.9M), Cancer (10.3M), Respiratory disease (4.0M) Note: Baseline data for regulatory mortality analysis. Conservative estimate of pharmaceutical impact based on WHO immunization data (4.5M/year from vaccines) + cardiovascular interventions (3.3M/year) + oncology (1.5M/year) + other therapies. Additional sources: https://www.who.int/data/gho/data/themes/mortality-and-global-health-estimates
.
6.
GiveWell. GiveWell cost per life saved for top charities (2024).
GiveWell: Top Charities https://www.givewell.org/charities/top-charities General range: $3,000-$5,500 per life saved (GiveWell top charities) Helen Keller International (Vitamin A): $3,500 average (2022-2024); varies $1,000-$8,500 by country Against Malaria Foundation: $5,500 per life saved New Incentives (vaccination incentives): $4,500 per life saved Malaria Consortium (seasonal malaria chemoprevention): $3,500 per life saved VAS program details: $2 to provide vitamin A supplements to child for one year Note: Figures accurate for 2024. Helen Keller VAS program has wide country variation ($1K-$8.5K) but $3,500 is accurate average. Among most cost-effective interventions globally Additional sources: https://www.givewell.org/charities/top-charities | https://www.givewell.org/charities/helen-keller-international | https://ourworldindata.org/cost-effectiveness
.
7.
U.S. Department of Defense.
5.56mm NATO ammunition bulk procurement pricing. (2024)
The cost of 5.56mm NATO ammunition at military bulk procurement rates is approximately $0.40 per round, based on Lake City Army Ammunition Plant production and commercial market floor prices for mil-spec M855 ammunition.
8.
Pike, J.
U.s. Forces fire 250,000 rounds for every insurgent killed. (2011)
The General Accounting Office reports that US forces used 1.8 billion rounds of small-arms ammunition per year, a level that more than doubled in five years. An estimated 250,000 rounds were fired for every insurgent killed in Iraq and Afghanistan.
9.
AARP. Unpaid caregiver hours and economic value.
AARP 2023 https://www.aarp.org/caregiving/financial-legal/info-2023/unpaid-caregivers-provide-billions-in-care.html (2023)
Average family caregiver: 25-26 hours per week (100-104 hours per month) 38 million caregivers providing 36 billion hours of care annually Economic value: $16.59 per hour = $600 billion total annual value (2021) 28% of people provided eldercare on a given day, averaging 3.9 hours when providing care Caregivers living with care recipient: 37.4 hours per week Caregivers not living with recipient: 23.7 hours per week Note: Disease-related caregiving is subset of total; includes elderly care, disability care, and child care Additional sources: https://www.aarp.org/caregiving/financial-legal/info-2023/unpaid-caregivers-provide-billions-in-care.html | https://www.bls.gov/news.release/elcare.nr0.htm | https://www.caregiver.org/resource/caregiver-statistics-demographics/
.
11.
Forbes.
Forbes world’s billionaires list 2024. (2024)
Forbes identified a record 2,781 billionaires worldwide with combined net worth of $14.2 trillion, 141 more than 2023. Bernard Arnault (LVMH) topped the list at $233 billion.
12.
CDC MMWR. Childhood vaccination economic benefits.
CDC MMWR https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/73/wr/mm7331a2.htm (1994)
US programs (1994-2023): $540B direct savings, $2.7T societal savings ( $18B/year direct, $90B/year societal) Global (2001-2020): $820B value for 10 diseases in 73 countries ( $41B/year) ROI: $11 return per $1 invested Measles vaccination alone saved 93.7M lives (61% of 154M total) over 50 years (1974-2024) Additional sources: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/73/wr/mm7331a2.htm | https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(24)00850-X/fulltext
.
16.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
CPI inflation calculator. (2024)
CPI-U (1980): 82.4 CPI-U (2024): 313.5 Inflation multiplier (1980-2024): 3.80× Cumulative inflation: 280.48% Average annual inflation rate: 3.08% Note: Official U.S. government inflation data using Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U). Additional sources: https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm
.
17.
James Surowiecki.
The Wisdom of Crowds. (Surowiecki, 2004).
Explores the aggregation of information in groups, arguing that decisions are often better than could have been made by any single member of the group. The opening anecdote relates Francis Galton’s surprise that the crowd at a county fair accurately guessed the weight of an ox when the median of their individual guesses was taken. The three conditions for a group to be intelligent are diversity, independence, and decentralization. Additional sources: https://archive.org/details/wisdomofcrowds0000suro | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds | https://www.amazon.com/Wisdom-Crowds-James-Surowiecki/dp/0385721706
.
18.
ClinicalTrials.gov API v2 direct analysis. ClinicalTrials.gov cumulative enrollment data (2025).
Direct analysis via ClinicalTrials.gov API v2 https://clinicaltrials.gov/data-api/api Analysis of 100,000 active/recruiting/completed trials on ClinicalTrials.gov (as of January 2025) shows cumulative enrollment of 12.2 million participants: Phase 1 (722k), Phase 2 (2.2M), Phase 3 (6.5M), Phase 4 (2.7M). Median participants per trial: Phase 1 (33), Phase 2 (60), Phase 3 (237), Phase 4 (90). Additional sources: https://clinicaltrials.gov/data-api/api
.
19.
ACS CAN. Clinical trial patient participation rate.
ACS CAN: Barriers to Clinical Trial Enrollment https://www.fightcancer.org/policy-resources/barriers-patient-enrollment-therapeutic-clinical-trials-cancer Only 3-5% of adult cancer patients in US receive treatment within clinical trials About 5% of American adults have ever participated in any clinical trial Oncology: 2-3% of all oncology patients participate Contrast: 50-60% enrollment for pediatric cancer trials (<15 years old) Note: 20% of cancer trials fail due to insufficient enrollment; 11% of research sites enroll zero patients Additional sources: https://www.fightcancer.org/policy-resources/barriers-patient-enrollment-therapeutic-clinical-trials-cancer | https://hints.cancer.gov/docs/Briefs/HINTS_Brief_48.pdf
.
20.
ScienceDaily. Global prevalence of chronic disease.
ScienceDaily: GBD 2015 Study https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/06/150608081753.htm (2015)
2.3 billion individuals had more than five ailments (2013) Chronic conditions caused 74% of all deaths worldwide (2019), up from 67% (2010) Approximately 1 in 3 adults suffer from multiple chronic conditions (MCCs) Risk factor exposures: 2B exposed to biomass fuel, 1B to air pollution, 1B smokers Projected economic cost: $47 trillion by 2030 Note: 2.3B with 5+ ailments is more accurate than "2B with chronic disease." One-third of all adults globally have multiple chronic conditions Additional sources: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/06/150608081753.htm | https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10830426/ | https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6214883/
.
21.
C&EN. Annual number of new drugs approved globally: 50.
C&EN https://cen.acs.org/pharmaceuticals/50-new-drugs-received-FDA/103/i2 (2025)
50 new drugs approved annually Additional sources: https://cen.acs.org/pharmaceuticals/50-new-drugs-received-FDA/103/i2 | https://www.fda.gov/drugs/development-approval-process-drugs/novel-drug-approvals-fda
.
22.
Williams, R. J., Tse, T., DiPiazza, K. & Zarin, D. A.
Terminated trials in the ClinicalTrials.gov results database: Evaluation of availability of primary outcome data and reasons for termination.
PLOS One 10, e0127242 (2015)
Approximately 12% of trials with results posted on the ClinicalTrials.gov results database (905/7,646) were terminated. Primary reasons: insufficient accrual (57% of non-data-driven terminations), business/strategic reasons, and efficacy/toxicity findings (21% data-driven terminations).
25.
OpenSecrets. Defense sector lobbying summary.
OpenSecrets https://www.opensecrets.org/federal-lobbying/sectors/summary?id=D (2025)
Military sector federal lobbying totaled $198,009,793 in 2025, up from $159.5 million in 2024 and $142.9 million in 2023. Additional sources: https://www.opensecrets.org/federal-lobbying/sectors/summary?id=D
.
26.
Companies Market Cap.
BAE systems and thales market capitalization. (2026)
BAE Systems market capitalization approx $75.80B and Thales approx $56.68B as of June 2026, combined approx $132.5B for the two major allied European military primes. Additional sources: https://companiesmarketcap.com/thales/marketcap/
.
27.
Stock Analysis.
Military prime contractor market capitalization and float statistics. (2026)
Combined market capitalization of 11 US military primes approx $835.8B at the 2026-06-11 close: RTX $248.07B, Boeing $174.71B, Lockheed Martin $126.51B, General Dynamics $96.90B, Northrop Grumman $78.48B, L3Harris $58.16B, Leidos $15.36B, Huntington Ingalls $11.86B, CACI $11.61B, Booz Allen Hamilton $9.24B, SAIC $4.86B. Tradeable float across the 13 Western primes (adding BAE Systems and Thales) approx $880B, about 91 percent of combined cap (range $850-900B), from per-company float and shares-outstanding statistics pages; big-5 floats verified individually (RTX 92.6%, BA 96.0%, LMT 85.7%, GD 94.2%, NOC 99.7%); Thales is the outlier at approx 45% float because the French State (26.60%) and Dassault Aviation (26.59%) stakes are locked. Additional sources: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/rtx/statistics/ | https://www.dassault-aviation.com/en/group/about-us/shareholding-structure-and-organization-chart/
.
28.
Rummel, R. J.
Death by Government: Genocide and Mass Murder Since 1900. (Transaction Publishers, 1994).
Political scientist R.J. Rummel’s comprehensive accounting of democide (government murder of unarmed civilians) in the 20th century. His final revised estimate: 262 million people murdered by their own governments from 1900-1999, excluding battle deaths in wars. Range: 200-272+ million. Communist regimes account for the largest share (100-148+ million). Updated figures at hawaii.edu/powerkills.
29.
GiveWell. Cost per DALY for deworming programs.
https://www.givewell.org/international/technical/programs/deworming/cost-effectiveness Schistosomiasis treatment: $28.19-$70.48 per DALY (using arithmetic means with varying disability weights) Soil-transmitted helminths (STH) treatment: $82.54 per DALY (midpoint estimate) Note: GiveWell explicitly states this 2011 analysis is "out of date" and their current methodology focuses on long-term income effects rather than short-term health DALYs Additional sources: https://www.givewell.org/international/technical/programs/deworming/cost-effectiveness
.
30.
Calculated from IHME Global Burden of Disease (2.55B DALYs) and global GDP per capita valuation. $109 trillion annual global disease burden.
The global economic burden of disease, including direct healthcare costs ($8.2 trillion) and lost productivity ($100.9 trillion from 2.55 billion DALYs × $39,570 per DALY), totals approximately $109.1 trillion annually.
32.
Think by Numbers. Pre-1962 drug development costs and timeline (think by numbers).
Think by Numbers: How Many Lives Does FDA Save? https://thinkbynumbers.org/health/how-many-net-lives-does-the-fda-save/ (1962)
Historical estimates (1970-1985): USD $226M fully capitalized (2011 prices) 1980s drugs: $65M after-tax R&D (1990 dollars), $194M compounded to approval (1990 dollars) Modern comparison: $2-3B costs, 7-12 years (dramatic increase from pre-1962) Context: 1962 regulatory clampdown reduced new treatment production by 70%, dramatically increasing development timelines and costs Note: Secondary source; less reliable than Congressional testimony Additional sources: https://thinkbynumbers.org/health/how-many-net-lives-does-the-fda-save/ | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_drug_development | https://www.statnews.com/2018/10/01/changing-1962-law-slash-drug-prices/
.
33.
Biotechnology Innovation Organization (BIO). BIO clinical development success rates 2011-2020.
Biotechnology Innovation Organization (BIO) https://go.bio.org/rs/490-EHZ-999/images/ClinicalDevelopmentSuccessRates2011_2020.pdf (2021)
Phase I duration: 2.3 years average Total time to market (Phase I-III + approval): 10.5 years average Phase transition success rates: Phase I→II: 63.2%, Phase II→III: 30.7%, Phase III→Approval: 58.1% Overall probability of approval from Phase I: 12% Note: Largest publicly available study of clinical trial success rates. Efficacy lag = 10.5 - 2.3 = 8.2 years post-safety verification. Additional sources: https://go.bio.org/rs/490-EHZ-999/images/ClinicalDevelopmentSuccessRates2011_2020.pdf
.
34.
Nature Medicine. Drug repurposing rate ( 30%).
Nature Medicine https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-024-03233-x (2024)
Approximately 30% of drugs gain at least one new indication after initial approval. Additional sources: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-024-03233-x
.
35.
EPI. Education investment economic multiplier (2.1).
EPI: Public Investments Outside Core Infrastructure https://www.epi.org/publication/bp348-public-investments-outside-core-infrastructure/ Early childhood education: Benefits 12X outlays by 2050; $8.70 per dollar over lifetime Educational facilities: $1 spent → $1.50 economic returns Energy efficiency comparison: 2-to-1 benefit-to-cost ratio (McKinsey) Private return to schooling: 9% per additional year (World Bank meta-analysis) Note: 2.1 multiplier aligns with benefit-to-cost ratios for educational infrastructure/energy efficiency. Early childhood education shows much higher returns (12X by 2050) Additional sources: https://www.epi.org/publication/bp348-public-investments-outside-core-infrastructure/ | https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/442521523465644318/pdf/WPS8402.pdf | https://freopp.org/whitepapers/establishing-a-practical-return-on-investment-framework-for-education-and-skills-development-to-expand-economic-opportunity/
.
36.
PMC. Healthcare investment economic multiplier (1.8).
PMC: California Universal Health Care https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5954824/ (2022)
Healthcare fiscal multiplier: 4.3 (95% CI: 2.5-6.1) during pre-recession period (1995-2007) Overall government spending multiplier: 1.61 (95% CI: 1.37-1.86) Why healthcare has high multipliers: No effect on trade deficits (spending stays domestic); improves productivity & competitiveness; enhances long-run potential output Gender-sensitive fiscal spending (health & care economy) produces substantial positive growth impacts Note: "1.8" appears to be conservative estimate; research shows healthcare multipliers of 4.3 Additional sources: https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5954824/ | https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/government-investment-and-fiscal-stimulus | https://ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3849102/ | https://set.odi.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Fiscal-multipliers-review.pdf
.
37.
World Bank. Infrastructure investment economic multiplier (1.6).
World Bank: Infrastructure Investment as Stimulus https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/ppps/effectiveness-infrastructure-investment-fiscal-stimulus-what-weve-learned (2022)
Infrastructure fiscal multiplier: 1.6 during contractionary phase of economic cycle Average across all economic states: 1.5 (meaning $1 of public investment → $1.50 of economic activity) Time horizon: 0.8 within 1 year, 1.5 within 2-5 years Range of estimates: 1.5-2.0 (following 2008 financial crisis & American Recovery Act) Italian public construction: 1.5-1.9 multiplier US ARRA: 0.4-2.2 range (differential impacts by program type) Economic Policy Institute: Uses 1.6 for infrastructure spending (middle range of estimates) Note: Public investment less likely to crowd out private activity during recessions; particularly effective when monetary policy loose with near-zero rates Additional sources: https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/ppps/effectiveness-infrastructure-investment-fiscal-stimulus-what-weve-learned | https://www.gihub.org/infrastructure-monitor/insights/fiscal-multiplier-effect-of-infrastructure-investment/ | https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/government-investment-and-fiscal-stimulus | https://www.richmondfed.org/publications/research/economic_brief/2022/eb_22-04
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38.
Mercatus. Military spending economic multiplier (0.6).
Mercatus: Defense Spending and Economy https://www.mercatus.org/research/research-papers/defense-spending-and-economy Ramey (2011): 0.6 short-run multiplier Barro (1981): 0.6 multiplier for WWII spending (war spending crowded out 40¢ private economic activity per federal dollar) Barro & Redlick (2011): 0.4 within current year, 0.6 over two years; increased govt spending reduces private-sector GDP portions General finding: $1 increase in deficit-financed federal military spending = less than $1 increase in GDP Variation by context: Central/Eastern European NATO: 0.6 on impact, 1.5-1.6 in years 2-3, gradual fall to zero Ramey & Zubairy (2018): Cumulative 1% GDP increase in military expenditure raises GDP by 0.7% Additional sources: https://www.mercatus.org/research/research-papers/defense-spending-and-economy | https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/world-war-ii-america-spending-deficits-multipliers-and-sacrifice | https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RRA700/RRA739-2/RAND_RRA739-2.pdf
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40.
FDA. FDA-approved prescription drug products (20,000+).
FDA https://www.fda.gov/media/143704/download There are over 20,000 prescription drug products approved for marketing. Additional sources: https://www.fda.gov/media/143704/download
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43.
ACLED. Active combat deaths annually.
ACLED: Global Conflict Surged 2024 https://acleddata.com/2024/12/12/data-shows-global-conflict-surged-in-2024-the-washington-post/ (2024)
2024: 233,597 deaths (30% increase from 179,099 in 2023) Deadliest conflicts: Ukraine (67,000), Palestine (35,000) Nearly 200,000 acts of violence (25% higher than 2023, double from 5 years ago) One in six people globally live in conflict-affected areas Additional sources: https://acleddata.com/2024/12/12/data-shows-global-conflict-surged-in-2024-the-washington-post/ | https://acleddata.com/media-citation/data-shows-global-conflict-surged-2024-washington-post | https://acleddata.com/conflict-index/index-january-2024/
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44.
UCDP. State violence deaths annually.
UCDP: Uppsala Conflict Data Program https://ucdp.uu.se/ Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP): Tracks one-sided violence (organized actors attacking unarmed civilians) UCDP definition: Conflicts causing at least 25 battle-related deaths in calendar year 2023 total organized violence: 154,000 deaths; Non-state conflicts: 20,900 deaths UCDP collects data on state-based conflicts, non-state conflicts, and one-sided violence Specific "2,700 annually" figure for state violence not found in recent UCDP data; actual figures vary annually Additional sources: https://ucdp.uu.se/ | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uppsala_Conflict_Data_Program | https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/deaths-in-armed-conflicts-by-region
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45.
Our World in Data. Terror attack deaths (8,300 annually).
Our World in Data: Terrorism https://ourworldindata.org/terrorism (2024)
2023: 8,352 deaths (22% increase from 2022, highest since 2017) 2023: 3,350 terrorist incidents (22% decrease), but 56% increase in avg deaths per attack Global Terrorism Database (GTD): 200,000+ terrorist attacks recorded (2021 version) Maintained by: National Consortium for Study of Terrorism & Responses to Terrorism (START), U. of Maryland Geographic shift: Epicenter moved from Middle East to Central Sahel (sub-Saharan Africa) - now >50% of all deaths Additional sources: https://ourworldindata.org/terrorism | https://reliefweb.int/report/world/global-terrorism-index-2024 | https://www.start.umd.edu/gtd/ | https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/fatalities-from-terrorism
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46.
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). IHME global burden of disease 2021 (2.88B DALYs, 1.13B YLD).
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) https://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-results/ (2024)
In 2021, global DALYs totaled approximately 2.88 billion, comprising 1.75 billion Years of Life Lost (YLL) and 1.13 billion Years Lived with Disability (YLD). This represents a 13% increase from 2019 (2.55B DALYs), largely attributable to COVID-19 deaths and aging populations. YLD accounts for approximately 39% of total DALYs, reflecting the substantial burden of non-fatal chronic conditions. Additional sources: https://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-results/ | https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(24)00757-8/fulltext | https://www.healthdata.org/research-analysis/about-gbd
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47.
Costs of War Project, Brown University Watson Institute. Environmental cost of war ($100B annually).
Brown Watson Costs of War: Environmental Cost https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/costs/social/environment War on Terror emissions: 1.2B metric tons GHG (equivalent to 257M cars/year) Military: 5.5% of global GHG emissions (2X aviation + shipping combined) US DoD: World’s single largest institutional oil consumer, 47th largest emitter if nation Cleanup costs: $500B+ for military contaminated sites Gaza war environmental damage: $56.4B; landmine clearance: $34.6B expected Climate finance gap: Rich nations spend 30X more on military than climate finance Note: Military activities cause massive environmental damage through GHG emissions, toxic contamination, and long-term cleanup costs far exceeding current climate finance commitments Additional sources: https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/costs/social/environment | https://earth.org/environmental-costs-of-wars/ | https://transformdefence.org/transformdefence/stats/
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48.
ScienceDaily. Medical research lives saved annually (4.2 million).
ScienceDaily: Physical Activity Prevents 4M Deaths https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/06/200617194510.htm (2020)
Physical activity: 3.9M early deaths averted annually worldwide (15% lower premature deaths than without) COVID vaccines (2020-2024): 2.533M deaths averted, 14.8M life-years preserved; first year alone: 14.4M deaths prevented Cardiovascular prevention: 3 interventions could delay 94.3M deaths over 25 years (antihypertensives alone: 39.4M) Pandemic research response: Millions of deaths averted through rapid vaccine/drug development Additional sources: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/06/200617194510.htm | https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9537923/ | https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.118.038160 | https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9464102/
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49.
SIPRI. 36:1 disparity ratio of spending on weapons over cures.
SIPRI: Military Spending https://www.sipri.org/commentary/blog/2016/opportunity-cost-world-military-spending (2016)
Global military spending: $2.7 trillion (2024, SIPRI) Global government medical research: $68 billion (2024) Actual ratio: 39.7:1 in favor of weapons over medical research Military R&D alone: $85B (2004 data, 10% of global R&D) Military spending increases crowd out health: 1% ↑ military = 0.62% ↓ health spending Note: Ratio actually worse than 36:1. Each 1% increase in military spending reduces health spending by 0.62%, with effect more intense in poorer countries (0.962% reduction) Additional sources: https://www.sipri.org/commentary/blog/2016/opportunity-cost-world-military-spending | https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9174441/ | https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R45403
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50.
Think by Numbers. Lost human capital due to war ($270B annually).
Think by Numbers https://thinkbynumbers.org/military/war/the-economic-case-for-peace-a-comprehensive-financial-analysis/ (2021)
Lost human capital from war: $300B annually (economic impact of losing skilled/productive individuals to conflict) Broader conflict/violence cost: $14T/year globally 1.4M violent deaths/year; conflict holds back economic development, causes instability, widens inequality, erodes human capital 2002: 48.4M DALYs lost from 1.6M violence deaths = $151B economic value (2000 USD) Economic toll includes: commodity prices, inflation, supply chain disruption, declining output, lost human capital Additional sources: https://thinkbynumbers.org/military/war/the-economic-case-for-peace-a-comprehensive-financial-analysis/ | https://www.weforum.org/stories/2021/02/war-violence-costs-each-human-5-a-day/ | https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/19115548/
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51.
PubMed. Psychological impact of war cost ($100B annually).
PubMed: Economic Burden of PTSD https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35485933/ PTSD economic burden (2018 U.S.): $232.2B total ($189.5B civilian, $42.7B military) Civilian costs driven by: Direct healthcare ($66B), unemployment ($42.7B) Military costs driven by: Disability ($17.8B), direct healthcare ($10.1B) Exceeds costs of other mental health conditions (anxiety, depression) War-exposed populations: 2-3X higher rates of anxiety, depression, PTSD; women and children most vulnerable Note: Actual burden $232B, significantly higher than "$100B" claimed Additional sources: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35485933/ | https://news.va.gov/103611/study-national-economic-burden-of-ptsd-staggering/ | https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9957523/
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52.
CGDev. UNHCR average refugee support cost.
CGDev https://www.cgdev.org/blog/costs-hosting-refugees-oecd-countries-and-why-uk-outlier (2024)
The average cost of supporting a refugee is $1,384 per year. This represents total host country costs (housing, healthcare, education, security). OECD countries average $6,100 per refugee (mean 2022-2023), with developing countries spending $700-1,000. Global weighted average of $1,384 is reasonable given that 75-85% of refugees are in low/middle-income countries. Additional sources: https://www.cgdev.org/blog/costs-hosting-refugees-oecd-countries-and-why-uk-outlier | https://www.unhcr.org/sites/default/files/2024-11/UNHCR-WB-global-cost-of-refugee-inclusion-in-host-country-health-systems.pdf
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53.
World Bank. World bank trade disruption cost from conflict.
World Bank https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/trade/publication/trading-away-from-conflict Estimated $616B annual cost from conflict-related trade disruption. World Bank research shows civil war costs an average developing country 30 years of GDP growth, with 20 years needed for trade to return to pre-war levels. Trade disputes analysis shows tariff escalation could reduce global exports by up to $674 billion. Additional sources: https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/trade/publication/trading-away-from-conflict | https://www.nber.org/papers/w11565 | http://blogs.worldbank.org/en/trade/impacts-global-trade-and-income-current-trade-disputes
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54.
VA. Veteran healthcare cost projections.
VA https://department.va.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/2026-Budget-in-Brief.pdf (2026)
VA budget: $441.3B requested for FY 2026 (10% increase). Disability compensation: $165.6B in FY 2024 for 6.7M veterans. PACT Act projected to increase spending by $300B between 2022-2031. Costs under Toxic Exposures Fund: $20B (2024), $30.4B (2025), $52.6B (2026). Additional sources: https://department.va.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/2026-Budget-in-Brief.pdf | https://www.cbo.gov/publication/45615 | https://www.legion.org/information-center/news/veterans-healthcare/2025/june/va-budget-tops-400-billion-for-2025-from-higher-spending-on-mandated-benefits-medical-care
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57.
Cybersecurity Ventures. Cybercrime economy projected to reach $10.5 trillion.
Cybersecurity Ventures: $10.5T Cybercrime https://cybersecurityventures.com/hackerpocalypse-cybercrime-report-2016/ (2016)
Global cybercrime costs: $3T (2015) → $6T (2021) → $10.5T (2025 projected) 15% annual growth rate If measured as country, would be 3rd largest economy after US and China Greatest transfer of economic wealth in history Note: More profitable than global trade of all major illegal drugs combined. Includes data theft, productivity loss, IP theft, fraud Additional sources: <https://cybersecurityventures.com/hackerpocalypse-cybercrime-report-2016/> | https://www.boisestate.edu/cybersecurity/2022/06/16/cybercrime-to-cost-the-world-10-5-trillion-annually-by-2025/
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59.
Bolt, J. & Zanden, J. L. van.
Maddison project database 2020. (2020)
Historical GDP per capita estimates from year 1 to present. Global GDP per capita in 1900: approximately 1,260 in 1990 international dollars (roughly 3,150 in 2024 USD after PPP and inflation adjustment). Standard reference for long-run comparative economic history.
60.
Applied Clinical Trials. Global government spending on interventional clinical trials: $3-6 billion/year.
Applied Clinical Trials https://www.appliedclinicaltrialsonline.com/view/sizing-clinical-research-market Estimated range based on NIH ( $0.8-5.6B), NIHR ($1.6B total budget), and EU funding ( $1.3B/year). Roughly 5-10% of global market. Additional sources: https://www.appliedclinicaltrialsonline.com/view/sizing-clinical-research-market | https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(20)30357-0/fulltext
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65.
United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division.
World population prospects 2024: Summary of results. (2024)
The 2024 Revision of the World Population Prospects provides population estimates and projections for 237 countries or areas. Global median age approximately 30.5 years in 2024, reflecting population-weighted average across all regions.
68.
Estimated from major foundation budgets and activities. Nonprofit clinical trial funding estimate.
Nonprofit foundations spend an estimated $2-5 billion annually on clinical trials globally, representing approximately 2-5% of total clinical trial spending.
69.
ICAN. Global nuclear weapon maintenance cost: $100 billion/year.
ICAN: Global Spending $100B 2024 https://www.icanw.org/global_spending_on_nuclear_weapons_topped_100_billion_in_2024 (2024)
2024: >$100 billion ($190,151/minute) - 11% increase ($9.9B) from 2023 Nine nuclear-armed states: China, France, India, Israel, N. Korea, Pakistan, Russia, UK, US US: $56.8B (more than all other 8 states combined); China: $12.5B; UK: $10B (+26% YoY, biggest increase) Historical trend: $72.9B (2019) → $82.4B (2021) → >$100B (2024) Private sector contracts: $463B ongoing; $42.5B earned from contracts in 2024 alone Note: $100B/year figure accurate for 2024. Rapid growth from $73B (2019). US spends more than rest of world combined on nuclear weapons Additional sources: https://www.icanw.org/global_spending_on_nuclear_weapons_topped_100_billion_in_2024 | https://www.icanw.org/the_cost_of_nuclear_weapons
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70.
Industry reports: IQVIA. Global pharmaceutical r&d spending.
Total global pharmaceutical R&D spending is approximately $300 billion annually. Clinical trials represent 15-20% of this total ($45-60B), with the remainder going to drug discovery, preclinical research, regulatory affairs, and manufacturing development.
71.
UN. Global population reaches 8 billion.
UN: World Population 8 Billion Nov 15 2022 https://www.un.org/en/desa/world-population-reach-8-billion-15-november-2022 (2022)
Milestone: November 15, 2022 (UN World Population Prospects 2022) Day of Eight Billion" designated by UN Added 1 billion people in just 11 years (2011-2022) Growth rate: Slowest since 1950; fell under 1% in 2020 Future: 15 years to reach 9B (2037); projected peak 10.4B in 2080s Projections: 8.5B (2030), 9.7B (2050), 10.4B (2080-2100 plateau) Note: Milestone reached Nov 2022. Population growth slowing; will take longer to add next billion (15 years vs 11 years) Additional sources: https://www.un.org/en/desa/world-population-reach-8-billion-15-november-2022 | https://www.un.org/en/dayof8billion | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Day_of_Eight_Billion
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72.
Harvard Kennedy School. 3.5% participation tipping point.
Harvard Kennedy School https://www.hks.harvard.edu/centers/carr/publications/35-rule-how-small-minority-can-change-world (2020)
The research found that nonviolent campaigns were twice as likely to succeed as violent ones, and once 3.5% of the population were involved, they were always successful. Chenoweth and Maria Stephan studied the success rates of civil resistance efforts from 1900 to 2006, finding that nonviolent movements attracted, on average, four times as many participants as violent movements and were more likely to succeed. Key finding: Every campaign that mobilized at least 3.5% of the population in sustained protest was successful (in their 1900-2006 dataset) Note: The 3.5% figure is a descriptive statistic from historical analysis, not a guaranteed threshold. One exception (Bahrain 2011-2014 with 6%+ participation) has been identified. The rule applies to regime change, not policy change in democracies. Additional sources: https://www.hks.harvard.edu/centers/carr/publications/35-rule-how-small-minority-can-change-world | https://www.hks.harvard.edu/sites/default/files/2024-05/Erica%20Chenoweth_2020-005.pdf | https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20190513-it-only-takes-35-of-people-to-change-the-world | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3.5%25_rule
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73.
International IDEA.
International IDEA voter turnout database world export. (2026)
Best current register-based estimate of global registered voters. Sum of the latest available country-level Registration counts in International IDEA’s world export on 2026-04-22 = 4,128,142,495 registered voters across 199 countries and political entities. Methodology notes that Registration is the number of names on the voters’ register as reported by electoral management bodies, and comparability is imperfect because voter rolls and registration systems differ across countries. Additional sources: https://www.idea.int/data-tools/data/voter-turnout-database | https://www.idea.int/data-tools/export?type=region_only&themeId=293&world=all&loc=home
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75.
Federation of American Scientists. World nuclear forces.
Federation of American Scientists https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/ (2024)
As of early 2025, we estimate that the world’s nine nuclear-armed states possess a combined total of approximately 12,241 nuclear warheads. Additional sources: https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/
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76.
OpenSecrets.
Top lobbying industries 2025. (2025)
Sector ranks and per-company federal lobbying spending for 2025. Combined market capitalization of the top-5 publicly traded US lobbying spenders in each government-controlling sector: pharmaceuticals $1,794.7B; technology $13,279.5B; insurance $385.6B; oil and gas $1,246.9B; four-sector total approx $16.71T. Caveats: Meta (Zuckerberg holds 60.8% of voting power) and Alphabet (Page and Brin hold 52.3%) cannot be majority-acquired; Ellison owns 40.6% of Oracle; the largest insurance lobbyists are mutuals with no public shares; trade associations (PhRMA, AHIP, SIFMA, API) are not acquirable. Additional sources: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/
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77.
NHGRI. Human genome project and CRISPR discovery.
NHGRI https://www.genome.gov/11006929/2003-release-international-consortium-completes-hgp (2003)
Your DNA is 3 billion base pairs Read the entire code (Human Genome Project, completed 2003) Learned to edit it (CRISPR, discovered 2012) Additional sources: https://www.genome.gov/11006929/2003-release-international-consortium-completes-hgp | https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/chemistry/2020/press-release/
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78.
PMC. Only 12% of human interactome targeted.
PMC https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10749231/ (2023)
Mapping 350,000+ clinical trials showed that only 12% of the human interactome has ever been targeted by drugs. Additional sources: https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10749231/
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79.
WHO. ICD-10 code count ( 14,000).
WHO https://icd.who.int/browse10/2019/en (2019)
The ICD-10 classification contains approximately 14,000 codes for diseases, signs and symptoms. Additional sources: https://icd.who.int/browse10/2019/en
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81.
McFarland, M. J., Hauer, M. E. & Reuben, A.
Half of US population exposed to adverse lead levels in early childhood.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 119, e2118631119 (2022)
Leaded gasoline, used in the US from 1923 until its on-road ban in 1996, exposed more than half of the 2015 US population to adverse blood-lead levels in early childhood. The authors estimate childhood lead exposure cost the population a cumulative 824 million IQ points, an average of 2.6 points per person, rising to 5.9 points for the most-exposed 1966-1970 birth cohort.
82.
Wikipedia. Longevity escape velocity (LEV) - maximum human life extension potential.
Wikipedia: Longevity Escape Velocity https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity Longevity escape velocity: Hypothetical point where medical advances extend life expectancy faster than time passes Term coined by Aubrey de Grey (biogerontologist) in 2004 paper; concept from David Gobel (Methuselah Foundation) Current progress: Science adds 3 months to lifespan per year; LEV requires adding >1 year per year Sinclair (Harvard): "There is no biological upper limit to age" - first person to live to 150 may already be born De Grey: 50% chance of reaching LEV by mid-to-late 2030s; SENS approach = damage repair rather than slowing damage Kurzweil (2024): LEV by 2029-2035, AI will simulate biological processes to accelerate solutions George Church: LEV "in a decade or two" via age-reversal clinical trials Natural lifespan cap: 120-150 years (Jeanne Calment record: 122); engineering approach could bypass via damage repair Key mechanisms: Epigenetic reprogramming, senolytic drugs, stem cell therapy, gene therapy, AI-driven drug discovery Current record: Jeanne Calment (122 years, 164 days) - record unbroken since 1997 Note: LEV is theoretical but increasingly plausible given demonstrated age reversal in mice (109% lifespan extension) and human cells (30-year epigenetic age reversal) Additional sources: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity | https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC423155/ | https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/a36712084/can-science-cure-death-longevity/ | https://www.diamandis.com/blog/longevity-escape-velocity
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83.
OpenSecrets. Lobbyist statistics for washington d.c.
OpenSecrets: Lobbying in US https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lobbying_in_the_United_States Registered lobbyists: Over 12,000 (some estimates); 12,281 registered (2013) Former government employees as lobbyists: 2,200+ former federal employees (1998-2004), including 273 former White House staffers, 250 former Congress members & agency heads Congressional revolving door: 43% (86 of 198) lawmakers who left 1998-2004 became lobbyists; currently 59% leaving to private sector work for lobbying/consulting firms/trade groups Executive branch: 8% were registered lobbyists at some point before/after government service Additional sources: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lobbying_in_the_United_States | https://www.opensecrets.org/revolving-door | https://www.citizen.org/article/revolving-congress/ | https://www.propublica.org/article/we-found-a-staggering-281-lobbyists-whove-worked-in-the-trump-administration
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84.
MDPI Vaccines. Measles vaccination ROI.
MDPI Vaccines https://www.mdpi.com/2076-393X/12/11/1210 (2024)
Single measles vaccination: 167:1 benefit-cost ratio. MMR (measles-mumps-rubella) vaccination: 14:1 ROI. Historical US elimination efforts (1966-1974): benefit-cost ratio of 10.3:1 with net benefits exceeding USD 1.1 billion (1972 dollars, or USD 8.0 billion in 2023 dollars). 2-dose MMR programs show direct benefit/cost ratio of 14.2 with net savings of $5.3 billion, and 26.0 from societal perspectives with net savings of $11.6 billion. Additional sources: https://www.mdpi.com/2076-393X/12/11/1210 | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14760584.2024.2367451
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88.
U.S. Government Accountability Office.
Electronic Health Records: First Year of CMS’s Incentive Programs Shows Opportunities to Improve Processes to Verify Providers Met Requirements.
https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-12-481 (2012).
94.
Calculated from Orphanet Journal of Rare Diseases (2024). Diseases getting first effective treatment each year.
Calculated from Orphanet Journal of Rare Diseases (2024) https://ojrd.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13023-024-03398-1 (2024)
Under the current system, approximately 10-15 diseases per year receive their FIRST effective treatment. Calculation: 5% of 7,000 rare diseases ( 350) have FDA-approved treatment, accumulated over 40 years of the Orphan Drug Act = 9 rare diseases/year. Adding 5-10 non-rare diseases that get first treatments yields 10-20 total. FDA approves 50 drugs/year, but many are for diseases that already have treatments (me-too drugs, second-line therapies). Only 15 represent truly FIRST treatments for previously untreatable conditions.
95.
NIH. NIH budget (FY 2025).
NIH https://www.nih.gov/about-nih/organization/budget (2024)
The budget total of $47.7 billion also includes $1.412 billion derived from PHS Evaluation financing... Additional sources: https://www.nih.gov/about-nih/organization/budget | https://officeofbudget.od.nih.gov/
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96.
Bentley et al. NIH spending on clinical trials: 3.3%.
Bentley et al. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10349341/ (2023)
NIH spent $8.1 billion on clinical trials for approved drugs (2010-2019), representing 3.3% of relevant NIH spending. Additional sources: https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10349341/ | https://catalyst.harvard.edu/news/article/nih-spent-8-1b-for-phased-clinical-trials-of-drugs-approved-2010-19-10-of-reported-industry-spending/
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97.
PMC. Standard medical research ROI ($20k-$100k/QALY).
PMC: Cost-effectiveness Thresholds Used by Study Authors https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10114019/ (1990)
Typical cost-effectiveness thresholds for medical interventions in rich countries range from $50,000 to $150,000 per QALY. The Institute for Clinical and Economic Review (ICER) uses a $100,000-$150,000/QALY threshold for value-based pricing. Between 1990-2021, authors increasingly cited $100,000 (47% by 2020-21) or $150,000 (24% by 2020-21) per QALY as benchmarks for cost-effectiveness. Additional sources: https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10114019/ | https://icer.org/our-approach/methods-process/cost-effectiveness-the-qaly-and-the-evlyg/
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98.
Xia et al., Nature Food. Nuclear winter famine.
Xia et al. https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-022-00573-0 (2022)
We estimate that a nuclear war between the United States and Russia would produce 150 Tg of soot and lead to 5 billion people dying at the end of year 2. Additional sources: https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-022-00573-0
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99.
Manhattan Institute. RECOVERY trial 82× cost reduction.
Manhattan Institute: Slow Costly Trials https://manhattan.institute/article/slow-costly-clinical-trials-drag-down-biomedical-breakthroughs RECOVERY trial: $500 per patient ($20M for 48,000 patients = $417/patient) Typical clinical trial: $41,000 median per-patient cost Cost reduction: 80-82× cheaper ($41,000 ÷ $500 ≈ 82×) Efficiency: $50 per patient per answer (10 therapeutics tested, 4 effective) Dexamethasone estimated to save >630,000 lives Additional sources: https://manhattan.institute/article/slow-costly-clinical-trials-drag-down-biomedical-breakthroughs | https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9293394/
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100.
Trials. Patient willingness to participate in clinical trials.
Trials: Patients’ Willingness Survey https://trialsjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13063-015-1105-3 Recent surveys: 49-51% willingness (2020-2022) - dramatic drop from 85% (2019) during COVID-19 pandemic Cancer patients when approached: 88% consented to trials (Royal Marsden Hospital) Study type variation: 44.8% willing for drug trial, 76.2% for diagnostic study Top motivation: "Learning more about my health/medical condition" (67.4%) Top barrier: "Worry about experiencing side effects" (52.6%) Additional sources: https://trialsjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13063-015-1105-3 | https://www.appliedclinicaltrialsonline.com/view/industry-forced-to-rethink-patient-participation-in-trials | https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7183682/
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101.
The Commune. Pentagon audit failures ($2.46T unaccounted).
The Commune https://thecommunemag.com/the-pentagon-misplaced-2-46-trillion-an-in-depth-look-at-the-financial-audit-failures (2024)
In the most recent audit, the Department of Defense (DoD) could not account for approximately 60% of its \(4.1 trillion in assets, amounting to\)2.46 trillion unaccounted for. Alternative title: Pentagon unsupported accounting adjustments (\(6.5T, single year, US Army) In 2015, the Department of Defense's Inspector General reported that the Army could not adequately support\)6.5 trillion in year-end adjustments, indicating severe accounting discrepancies. Additional sources: https://thecommunemag.com/the-pentagon-misplaced-2-46-trillion-an-in-depth-look-at-the-financial-audit-failures | https://accmag.com/audit-pentagon-cannot-account-for-6-5-trillion-dollars-is-taxpayer-money/
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102.
Tufts CSDD. Cost of drug development.
Various estimates suggest $1.0 - $2.5 billion to bring a new drug from discovery through FDA approval, spread across 10 years. Tufts Center for the Study of Drug Development often cited for $1.0 - $2.6 billion/drug. Industry reports (IQVIA, Deloitte) also highlight $2+ billion figures.
103.
Value in Health. Average lifetime revenue per successful drug.
Value in Health: Sales Revenues for New Therapeutic Agents https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1098301524027542 Study of 361 FDA-approved drugs from 1995-2014 (median follow-up 13.2 years): Mean lifetime revenue: $15.2 billion per drug Median lifetime revenue: $6.7 billion per drug Revenue after 5 years: $3.2 billion (mean) Revenue after 10 years: $9.5 billion (mean) Revenue after 15 years: $19.2 billion (mean) Distribution highly skewed: top 25 drugs (7%) accounted for 38% of total revenue ($2.1T of $5.5T) Additional sources: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1098301524027542
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104.
Lichtenberg, F. R.
How many life-years have new drugs saved? A three-way fixed-effects analysis of 66 diseases in 27 countries, 2000-2013.
International Health 11, 403–416 (2019)
Using 3-way fixed-effects methodology (disease-country-year) across 66 diseases in 22 countries, this study estimates that drugs launched after 1981 saved 148.7 million life-years in 2013 alone. The regression coefficients for drug launches 0-11 years prior (beta=-0.031, SE=0.008) and 12+ years prior (beta=-0.057, SE=0.013) on years of life lost are highly significant (p<0.0001). Confidence interval for life-years saved: 79.4M-239.8M (95 percent CI) based on propagated standard errors from Table 2.
105.
Deloitte. Pharmaceutical r&d return on investment (ROI).
Deloitte: Measuring Pharmaceutical Innovation 2025 https://www.deloitte.com/ch/en/Industries/life-sciences-health-care/research/measuring-return-from-pharmaceutical-innovation.html (2025)
Deloitte’s annual study of top 20 pharma companies by R&D spend (2010-2024): 2024 ROI: 5.9% (second year of growth after decade of decline) 2023 ROI: 4.3% (estimated from trend) 2022 ROI: 1.2% (historic low since study began, 13-year low) 2021 ROI: 6.8% (record high, inflated by COVID-19 vaccines/treatments) Long-term trend: Declining for over a decade before 2023 recovery Average R&D cost per asset: $2.3B (2022), $2.23B (2024) These returns (1.2-5.9% range) fall far below typical corporate ROI targets (15-20%) Additional sources: https://www.deloitte.com/ch/en/Industries/life-sciences-health-care/research/measuring-return-from-pharmaceutical-innovation.html | https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/deloittes-13th-annual-pharmaceutical-innovation-report-pharma-rd-return-on-investment-falls-in-post-pandemic-market-301738807.html | https://hitconsultant.net/2023/02/16/pharma-rd-roi-falls-to-lowest-level-in-13-years/
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106.
Nature Reviews Drug Discovery. Drug trial success rate from phase i to approval.
Nature Reviews Drug Discovery: Clinical Success Rates https://www.nature.com/articles/nrd.2016.136 (2016)
Overall Phase I to approval: 10-12.8% (conventional wisdom 10%, studies show 12.8%) Recent decline: Average LOA now 6.7% for Phase I (2014-2023 data) Leading pharma companies: 14.3% average LOA (range 8-23%) Varies by therapeutic area: Oncology 3.4%, CNS/cardiovascular lowest at Phase III Phase-specific success: Phase I 47-54%, Phase II 28-34%, Phase III 55-70% Note: 12% figure accurate for historical average. Recent data shows decline to 6.7%, with Phase II as primary attrition point (28% success) Additional sources: https://www.nature.com/articles/nrd.2016.136 | https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6409418/ | https://academic.oup.com/biostatistics/article/20/2/273/4817524
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107.
SofproMed. Phase 3 cost per trial range.
SofproMed https://www.sofpromed.com/how-much-does-a-clinical-trial-cost Phase 3 clinical trials cost between $20 million and $282 million per trial, with significant variation by therapeutic area and trial complexity. Additional sources: https://www.sofpromed.com/how-much-does-a-clinical-trial-cost | https://www.cbo.gov/publication/57126
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108.
Ramsberg, J. & Platt, R. Pragmatic trial cost per patient (median $97).
Learning Health Systems https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6508852/ (2018)
Meta-analysis of 108 embedded pragmatic clinical trials (2006-2016). The median cost per patient was $97 (IQR $19–$478), based on 2015 dollars. 25% of trials cost <$19/patient; 10 trials exceeded $1,000/patient. U.S. studies median $187 vs non-U.S. median $27. Additional sources: https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6508852/
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109.
WHO. Polio vaccination ROI.
WHO https://www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/detail/sustaining-polio-investments-offers-a-high-return (2019)
For every dollar spent, the return on investment is nearly US$ 39." Total investment cost of US$ 7.5 billion generates projected economic and social benefits of US$ 289.2 billion from sustaining polio assets and integrating them into expanded immunization, surveillance and emergency response programmes across 8 priority countries (Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Pakistan, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Yemen). Additional sources: https://www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/detail/sustaining-polio-investments-offers-a-high-return
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110.
ICRC. International campaign to ban landmines (ICBL) - ottawa treaty (1997).
ICRC https://www.icrc.org/en/doc/resources/documents/article/other/57jpjn.htm (1997)
ICBL: Founded 1992 by 6 NGOs (Handicap International, Human Rights Watch, Medico International, Mines Advisory Group, Physicians for Human Rights, Vietnam Veterans of America Foundation) Started with ONE staff member: Jody Williams as founding coordinator Grew to 1,000+ organizations in 60 countries by 1997 Ottawa Process: 14 months (October 1996 - December 1997) Convention signed by 122 states on December 3, 1997; entered into force March 1, 1999 Achievement: Nobel Peace Prize 1997 (shared by ICBL and Jody Williams) Government funding context: Canada established $100M CAD Canadian Landmine Fund over 10 years (1997); International donors provided $169M in 1997 for mine action (up from $100M in 1996) Additional sources: https://www.icrc.org/en/doc/resources/documents/article/other/57jpjn.htm | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Campaign_to_Ban_Landmines | https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/1997/summary/ | https://un.org/press/en/1999/19990520.MINES.BRF.html | https://www.the-monitor.org/en-gb/reports/2003/landmine-monitor-2003/mine-action-funding.aspx
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111.
OpenSecrets.
Revolving door: Former members of congress. (2024)
388 former members of Congress are registered as lobbyists. Nearly 5,400 former congressional staffers have left Capitol Hill to become federal lobbyists in the past 10 years. Additional sources: https://www.opensecrets.org/revolving-door
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112.
Kinch, M. S. & Griesenauer, R. H.
Lost medicines: A longer view of the pharmaceutical industry with the potential to reinvigorate discovery.
Drug Discovery Today 24, 875–880 (2019)
Research identified 1,600+ medicines available in 1962. The 1950s represented industry high-water mark with >30 new products in five of ten years; this rate would not be replicated until late 1990s. More than half (880) of these medicines were lost following implementation of Kefauver-Harris Amendment. The peak of 1962 would not be seen again until early 21st century. By 2016 number of organizations actively involved in R&D at level not seen since 1914.
113.
Baily, M. N. Pre-1962 drug development costs (baily 1972).
Baily (1972) https://samizdathealth.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/hlthaff.1.2.6.pdf (1972)
Pre-1962: Average cost per new chemical entity (NCE) was $6.5 million (1980 dollars) Inflation-adjusted to 2024 dollars: $6.5M (1980) ≈ $22.5M (2024), using CPI multiplier of 3.46× Real cost increase (inflation-adjusted): $22.5M (pre-1962) → $2,600M (2024) = 116× increase Note: This represents the most comprehensive academic estimate of pre-1962 drug development costs based on empirical industry data Additional sources: https://samizdathealth.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/hlthaff.1.2.6.pdf
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114.
Think by Numbers. Pre-1962 physician-led clinical trials.
Think by Numbers: How Many Lives Does FDA Save? https://thinkbynumbers.org/health/how-many-net-lives-does-the-fda-save/ (1966)
Pre-1962: Physicians could report real-world evidence directly 1962 Drug Amendments replaced "premarket notification" with "premarket approval", requiring extensive efficacy testing Impact: New regulatory clampdown reduced new treatment production by 70%; lifespan growth declined from 4 years/decade to 2 years/decade Drug Efficacy Study Implementation (DESI): NAS/NRC evaluated 3,400+ drugs approved 1938-1962 for safety only; reviewed >3,000 products, >16,000 therapeutic claims FDA has had authority to accept real-world evidence since 1962, clarified by 21st Century Cures Act (2016) Note: Specific "144,000 physicians" figure not verified in sources Additional sources: https://thinkbynumbers.org/health/how-many-net-lives-does-the-fda-save/ | https://www.fda.gov/drugs/enforcement-activities-fda/drug-efficacy-study-implementation-desi | http://www.nasonline.org/about-nas/history/archives/collections/des-1966-1969-1.html
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115.
GAO. 95% of diseases have 0 FDA-approved treatments.
GAO https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-25-106774 (2025)
95% of diseases have no treatment Additional sources: https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-25-106774 | https://globalgenes.org/rare-disease-facts/
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117.
NHS England; Águas et al. RECOVERY trial global lives saved ( 1 million).
NHS England: 1 Million Lives Saved https://www.england.nhs.uk/2021/03/covid-treatment-developed-in-the-nhs-saves-a-million-lives/ (2021)
Dexamethasone saved 1 million lives worldwide (NHS England estimate, March 2021, 9 months after discovery). UK alone: 22,000 lives saved. Methodology: Águas et al. Nature Communications 2021 estimated 650,000 lives (range: 240,000-1,400,000) for July-December 2020 alone, based on RECOVERY trial mortality reductions (36% for ventilated, 18% for oxygen-only patients) applied to global COVID hospitalizations. June 2020 announcement: Dexamethasone reduced deaths by up to 1/3 (ventilated patients), 1/5 (oxygen patients). Impact immediate: Adopted into standard care globally within hours of announcement. Additional sources: https://www.england.nhs.uk/2021/03/covid-treatment-developed-in-the-nhs-saves-a-million-lives/ | https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-21134-2 | https://pharmaceutical-journal.com/article/news/steroid-has-saved-the-lives-of-one-million-covid-19-patients-worldwide-figures-show | https://www.recoverytrial.net/news/recovery-trial-celebrates-two-year-anniversary-of-life-saving-dexamethasone-result
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120.
National September 11 Memorial & Museum.
September 11 attack facts. (2024)
2,977 people were killed in the September 11, 2001 attacks: 2,753 at the World Trade Center, 184 at the Pentagon, and 40 passengers and crew on United Flight 93 in Shanksville, Pennsylvania.
121.
World Bank. World bank singapore economic data.
World Bank https://data.worldbank.org/country/singapore (2024)
Singapore GDP per capita (2023): $82,000 - among highest in the world Government spending: 15% of GDP (vs US 38%) Life expectancy: 84.1 years (vs US 77.5 years) Singapore demonstrates that low government spending can coexist with excellent outcomes Additional sources: https://data.worldbank.org/country/singapore
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122.
International Monetary Fund.
IMF singapore government spending data. (2024)
Singapore government spending is approximately 15% of GDP This is 23 percentage points lower than the United States (38%) Despite lower spending, Singapore achieves excellent outcomes: - Life expectancy: 84.1 years (vs US 77.5) - Low crime, world-class infrastructure, AAA credit rating Additional sources: https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/SGP
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123.
World Health Organization.
WHO life expectancy data by country. (2024)
Life expectancy at birth varies significantly among developed nations: Switzerland: 84.0 years (2023) Singapore: 84.1 years (2023) Japan: 84.3 years (2023) United States: 77.5 years (2023) - 6.5 years below Switzerland, Singapore Global average: 73 years Note: US spends more per capita on healthcare than any other nation, yet achieves lower life expectancy Additional sources: https://www.who.int/data/gho/data/themes/mortality-and-global-health-estimates/ghe-life-expectancy-and-healthy-life-expectancy
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125.
PMC. Contribution of smoking reduction to life expectancy gains.
PMC: Benefits Smoking Cessation Longevity https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1447499/ (2012)
Population-level: Up to 14% (9% men, 14% women) of total life expectancy gain since 1960 due to tobacco control efforts Individual cessation benefits: Quitting at age 35 adds 6.9-8.5 years (men), 6.1-7.7 years (women) vs continuing smokers By cessation age: Age 25-34 = 10 years gained; age 35-44 = 9 years; age 45-54 = 6 years; age 65 = 2.0 years (men), 3.7 years (women) Cessation before age 40: Reduces death risk by 90% Long-term cessation: 10+ years yields survival comparable to never smokers, averts 10 years of life lost Recent cessation: <3 years averts 5 years of life lost Additional sources: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1447499/ | https://www.cdc.gov/pcd/issues/2012/11_0295.htm | https://www.ajpmonline.org/article/S0749-3797(24)00217-4/fulltext | https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMsa1211128
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126.
ICER. Value per QALY (standard economic value).
ICER https://icer.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Reference-Case-4.3.25.pdf (2024)
Standard economic value per QALY: $100,000–$150,000. This is the US and global standard willingness-to-pay threshold for interventions that add costs. Dominant interventions (those that save money while improving health) are favorable regardless of this threshold. Additional sources: https://icer.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Reference-Case-4.3.25.pdf
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127.
GAO. Annual cost of u.s. Sugar subsidies.
GAO: Sugar Program https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-24-106144 Consumer costs: $2.5-3.5 billion per year (GAO estimate) Net economic cost: $1 billion per year 2022: US consumers paid 2X world price for sugar Program costs $3-4 billion/year but no federal budget impact (costs passed directly to consumers via higher prices) Employment impact: 10,000-20,000 manufacturing jobs lost annually in sugar-reliant industries (confectionery, etc.) Multiple studies confirm: Sweetener Users Association ($2.9-3.5B), AEI ($2.4B consumer cost), Beghin & Elobeid ($2.9-3.5B consumer surplus) Additional sources: https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-24-106144 | https://www.heritage.org/agriculture/report/the-us-sugar-program-bad-consumers-bad-agriculture-and-bad-america | https://www.aei.org/articles/the-u-s-spends-4-billion-a-year-subsidizing-stalinist-style-domestic-sugar-production/
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128.
World Bank. Swiss military budget as percentage of GDP.
World Bank: Military Expenditure https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS?locations=CH 2023: 0.70272% of GDP (World Bank) 2024: CHF 5.95 billion official military spending When including militia system costs: 1% GDP (CHF 8.75B) Comparison: Near bottom in Europe; only Ireland, Malta, Moldova spend less (excluding microstates with no armies) Additional sources: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS?locations=CH | https://www.avenir-suisse.ch/en/blog-defence-spending-switzerland-is-in-better-shape-than-it-seems/ | https://tradingeconomics.com/switzerland/military-expenditure-percent-of-gdp-wb-data.html
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129.
World Bank. Switzerland vs. US GDP per capita comparison.
World Bank: Switzerland GDP Per Capita https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=CH 2024 GDP per capita (PPP-adjusted): Switzerland $93,819 vs United States $75,492 Switzerland’s GDP per capita 24% higher than US when adjusted for purchasing power parity Nominal 2024: Switzerland $103,670 vs US $85,810 Additional sources: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=CH | https://tradingeconomics.com/switzerland/gdp-per-capita-ppp | https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/USA/gdp_per_capita_ppp/
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130.
OECD.
OECD government spending as percentage of GDP. (2024)
OECD government spending data shows significant variation among developed nations: United States: 38.0% of GDP (2023) Switzerland: 35.0% of GDP - 3 percentage points lower than US Singapore: 15.0% of GDP - 23 percentage points lower than US (per IMF data) OECD average: approximately 40% of GDP Additional sources: https://data.oecd.org/gga/general-government-spending.htm
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131.
OECD.
OECD median household income comparison. (2024)
Median household disposable income varies significantly across OECD nations: United States: $77,500 (2023) Switzerland: $55,000 PPP-adjusted (lower nominal but comparable purchasing power) Singapore: $75,000 PPP-adjusted Additional sources: https://data.oecd.org/hha/household-disposable-income.htm
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132.
Wikipedia. Thalidomide scandal: Worldwide cases and mortality.
Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thalidomide_scandal The total number of embryos affected by the use of thalidomide during pregnancy is estimated at 10,000, of whom about 40% died around the time of birth. More than 10,000 children in 46 countries were born with deformities such as phocomelia. Additional sources: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thalidomide_scandal
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133.
PLOS One. Health and quality of life of thalidomide survivors as they age.
PLOS One https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0210222 (2019)
Study of thalidomide survivors documenting ongoing disability impacts, quality of life, and long-term health outcomes. Survivors (now in their 60s) continue to experience significant disability from limb deformities, organ damage, and other effects. Additional sources: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0210222
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135.
FDA Study via NCBI. Trial costs, FDA study.
FDA Study via NCBI https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6248200/ Overall, the 138 clinical trials had an estimated median (IQR) cost of $19.0 million ($12.2 million-$33.1 million)... The clinical trials cost a median (IQR) of $41,117 ($31,802-$82,362) per patient. Additional sources: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6248200/
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136.
GBD 2019 Diseases and Injuries Collaborators.
Global burden of disease study 2019: Disability weights.
The Lancet 396, 1204–1222 (2020)
Disability weights for 235 health states used in Global Burden of Disease calculations. Weights range from 0 (perfect health) to 1 (death equivalent). Chronic conditions like diabetes (0.05-0.35), COPD (0.04-0.41), depression (0.15-0.66), and cardiovascular disease (0.04-0.57) show substantial variation by severity. Treatment typically reduces disability weights by 50-80 percent for manageable chronic conditions.
137.
WHO. Annual global economic burden of alzheimer’s and other dementias.
WHO: Dementia Fact Sheet https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/dementia (2019)
Global cost: $1.3 trillion (2019 WHO-commissioned study) 50% from informal caregivers (family/friends, 5 hrs/day) 74% of costs in high-income countries despite 61% of patients in LMICs $818B (2010) → $1T (2018) → $1.3T (2019) - rapid growth Note: Costs increased 35% from 2010-2015 alone. Informal care represents massive hidden economic burden Additional sources: https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/dementia | https://alz-journals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/alz.12901
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138.
JAMA Oncology. Annual global economic burden of cancer.
JAMA Oncology: Global Cost 2020-2050 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamaoncology/fullarticle/2801798 (2020)
2020-2050 projection: $25.2 trillion total ($840B/year average) 2010 annual cost: $1.16 trillion (direct costs only) Recent estimate: $3 trillion/year (all costs included) Top 5 cancers: lung (15.4%), colon/rectum (10.9%), breast (7.7%), liver (6.5%), leukemia (6.3%) Note: China/US account for 45% of global burden; 75% of deaths in LMICs but only 50.0% of economic cost Additional sources: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamaoncology/fullarticle/2801798 | https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-00634-9
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140.
Diabetes Care. Annual global economic burden of diabetes.
Diabetes Care: Global Economic Burden https://diabetesjournals.org/care/article/41/5/963/36522/Global-Economic-Burden-of-Diabetes-in-Adults 2015: $1.3 trillion (1.8% of global GDP) 2030 projections: $2.1T-2.5T depending on scenario IDF health expenditure: $760B (2019) → $845B (2045 projected) 2/3 direct medical costs ($857B), 1/3 indirect costs (lost productivity) Note: Costs growing rapidly; expected to exceed $2T by 2030 Additional sources: https://diabetesjournals.org/care/article/41/5/963/36522/Global-Economic-Burden-of-Diabetes-in-Adults | https://doi.org/10.1016/S2213-8587(17)30097-9
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142.
World Bank, Bureau of Economic Analysis. US GDP 2024 ($28.78 trillion).
World Bank https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=US (2024)
US GDP reached $28.78 trillion in 2024, representing approximately 26% of global GDP. Additional sources: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=US | https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/gross-domestic-product-fourth-quarter-and-year-2024-advance-estimate
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143.
Environmental Working Group. US farm subsidy database and analysis.
Environmental Working Group https://farm.ewg.org/ (2024)
US agricultural subsidies total approximately $30 billion annually, but create much larger economic distortions. Top 10% of farms receive 78% of subsidies, benefits concentrated in commodity crops (corn, soy, wheat, cotton), environmental damage from monoculture incentivized, and overall deadweight loss estimated at $50-120 billion annually. Additional sources: https://farm.ewg.org/ | https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/farm-economy/farm-sector-income-finances/government-payments-the-safety-net/
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144.
Drug Policy Alliance.
The drug war by the numbers. (2021)
Since 1971, the war on drugs has cost the United States an estimated $1 trillion in enforcement. The federal drug control budget was $41 billion in 2022. Mass incarceration costs the U.S. at least $182 billion every year, with over $450 billion spent to incarcerate individuals on drug charges in federal prisons.
145.
International Monetary Fund.
IMF fossil fuel subsidies data: 2023 update. (2023)
Globally, fossil fuel subsidies were $7 trillion in 2022 or 7.1 percent of GDP. The United States subsidies totaled $649 billion. Underpricing for local air pollution costs and climate damages are the largest contributor, accounting for about 30 percent each.
146.
Papanicolas, Irene et al. Health care spending in the united states and other high-income countries.
Papanicolas et al. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/article-abstract/2674671 (2018)
The US spent approximately twice as much as other high-income countries on medical care (mean per capita: $9,892 vs $5,289), with similar utilization but much higher prices. Administrative costs accounted for 8% of US spending vs 1-3% in other countries. US spending on pharmaceuticals was $1,443 per capita vs $749 elsewhere. Despite spending more, US health outcomes are not better. Additional sources: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/article-abstract/2674671
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147.
Hsieh, C.-T. & Moretti, E. Housing constraints and spatial misallocation.
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/mac.20170388 (2019)
We quantify the amount of spatial misallocation of labor across US cities and its aggregate costs. Tight land-use restrictions in high-productivity cities like New York, San Francisco, and Boston lowered aggregate US growth by 36% from 1964 to 2009. Local constraints on housing supply have had enormous effects on the national economy. Additional sources: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/mac.20170388
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149.
Tax Foundation. Tax compliance costs the US economy $546 billion annually.
https://taxfoundation.org/data/all/federal/irs-tax-compliance-costs/ (2024)
Americans will spend over 7.9 billion hours complying with IRS tax filing and reporting requirements in 2024. This costs the economy roughly $413 billion in lost productivity. In addition, the IRS estimates that Americans spend roughly $133 billion annually in out-of-pocket costs, bringing the total compliance costs to $546 billion, or nearly 2 percent of GDP.
150.
Cook, C., Cole, G., Asaria, P., Jabbour, R. & Francis, D. P. Annual global economic burden of heart disease.
International Journal of Cardiology https://www.internationaljournalofcardiology.com/article/S0167-5273(13)02238-9/abstract (2014)
Heart failure alone: $108 billion/year (2012 global analysis, 197 countries) US CVD: $555B (2016) → projected $1.8T by 2050 LMICs total CVD loss: $3.7T cumulative (2011-2015, 5-year period) CVD is costliest disease category in most developed nations Note: No single $2.1T global figure found; estimates vary widely by scope and year Additional sources: https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/10.1161/CIR.0000000000001258
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151.
Source: US Life Expectancy FDA Budget 1543-2019 CSV.
US life expectancy growth 1880-1960: 3.82 years per decade. (2019)
Pre-1962: 3.82 years/decade Post-1962: 1.54 years/decade Reduction: 60% decline in life expectancy growth rate Additional sources: https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy | https://www.mortality.org/ | https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/mortality_tables.htm
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152.
Source: US Life Expectancy FDA Budget 1543-2019 CSV.
Post-1962 slowdown in life expectancy gains. (2019)
Pre-1962 (1880-1960): 3.82 years/decade Post-1962 (1962-2019): 1.54 years/decade Reduction: 60% decline Temporal correlation: Slowdown occurred immediately after 1962 Kefauver-Harris Amendment Additional sources: https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy | https://www.mortality.org/ | https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/mortality_tables.htm
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153.
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
US life expectancy 2023. (2024)
US life expectancy at birth was 77.5 years in 2023 Male life expectancy: 74.8 years Female life expectancy: 80.2 years This is 6-7 years lower than peer developed nations despite higher healthcare spending Additional sources: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/life-expectancy.htm
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154.
US Census Bureau.
US median household income 2023. (2024)
US median household income was $77,500 in 2023 Real median household income declined 0.8% from 2022 Gini index: 0.467 (income inequality measure) Additional sources: https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2024/demo/p60-282.html
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155.
Manuel, D. U.s. Defense spending history: 100 years of military budgets.
DaveManuel.com https://www.davemanuel.com/us-defense-spending-history-military-budget-data.php (2025)
US military spending in constant 2024 dollars: 1939 $29B (pre-WW2 baseline), 1940 $37B, 1944 $1,383B, 1945 $1,420B (peak), 1946 $674B, 1947 $176B, 1948 $117B, 2024 $886B. The post-WW2 demobilization cut spending 88% in two years (1945-1947). Current peacetime spending ($886B) is 30x the pre-WW2 baseline and 62% of peak WW2 spending, in inflation-adjusted dollars.
156.
Statista. US military budget as percentage of GDP.
Statista https://www.statista.com/statistics/262742/countries-with-the-highest-military-spending/ (2024)
U.S. military spending amounted to 3.5% of GDP in 2024. In 2024, the U.S. spent nearly $1 trillion on its military budget, equal to 3.4% of GDP. Additional sources: https://www.statista.com/statistics/262742/countries-with-the-highest-military-spending/ | https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2025-04/2504_fs_milex_2024.pdf
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157.
US Census Bureau. Number of registered or eligible voters in the u.s.
US Census Bureau https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2025/2024-presidential-election-voting-registration-tables.html (2024)
73.6% (or 174 million people) of the citizen voting-age population was registered to vote in 2024 (Census Bureau). More than 211 million citizens were active registered voters (86.6% of citizen voting age population) according to the Election Assistance Commission. Additional sources: https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2025/2024-presidential-election-voting-registration-tables.html | https://www.eac.gov/news/2025/06/30/us-election-assistance-commission-releases-2024-election-administration-and-voting
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158.
U.S. Senate. Treaties.
U.S. Senate https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/treaties.htm The Constitution provides that the president ’shall have Power, by and with the Advice and Consent of the Senate, to make Treaties, provided two-thirds of the Senators present concur’ (Article II, section 2). Treaties are formal agreements with foreign nations that require two-thirds Senate approval. 67 senators (two-thirds of 100) must vote to ratify a treaty for it to take effect. Additional sources: https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/treaties.htm
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160.
Federal Election Commission.
Statistical summary of 24-month campaign activity of the 2023-2024 election cycle. (2023)
Presidential candidates raised $2 billion; House and Senate candidates raised $3.8 billion and spent $3.7 billion; PACs raised $15.7 billion and spent $15.5 billion. Total federal campaign spending approximately $20 billion. Additional sources: https://www.fec.gov/updates/statistical-summary-of-24-month-campaign-activity-of-the-2023-2024-election-cycle/
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161.
OpenSecrets.
Federal lobbying hit record $4.4 billion in 2024. (2024)
Total federal lobbying reached record $4.4 billion in 2024. The $150 million increase in lobbying continues an upward trend that began in 2016. Additional sources: https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2025/02/federal-lobbying-set-new-record-in-2024/
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162.
Columbia/NBER. Odds of a single vote being decisive in a u.s. Presidential election.
Columbia/NBER: What Is the Probability Your Vote Will Make a Difference? https://sites.stat.columbia.edu/gelman/research/published/probdecisive2.pdf (2012)
National average: 1 in 60 million chance (2008 election analysis by Gelman, Silver, Edlin) Swing states (NM, VA, NH, CO): 1 in 10 million chance Non-competitive states: 34 states >1 in 100 million odds; 20 states >1 in 1 billion Washington DC: 1 in 490 billion odds Methodology: Probability state is necessary for electoral college win × probability state vote is tied Additional sources: https://sites.stat.columbia.edu/gelman/research/published/probdecisive2.pdf | https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1465-7295.2010.00272.x
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163.
Hutchinson and Kirk.
Valley of death in drug development. (2011)
The overall failure rate of drugs that passed into Phase 1 trials to final approval is 90%. This lack of translation from promising preclinical findings to success in human trials is known as the "valley of death." Estimated 30-50% of promising compounds never proceed to Phase 2/3 trials primarily due to funding barriers rather than scientific failure. The late-stage attrition rate for oncology drugs is as high as 70% in Phase II and 59% in Phase III trials.
164.
DOT. DOT value of statistical life ($13.6M).
DOT: VSL Guidance 2024 https://www.transportation.gov/office-policy/transportation-policy/revised-departmental-guidance-on-valuation-of-a-statistical-life-in-economic-analysis (2024)
Current VSL (2024): $13.7 million (updated from $13.6M) Used in cost-benefit analyses for transportation regulations and infrastructure Methodology updated in 2013 guidance, adjusted annually for inflation and real income VSL represents aggregate willingness to pay for safety improvements that reduce fatalities by one Note: DOT has published VSL guidance periodically since 1993. Current $13.7M reflects 2024 inflation/income adjustments Additional sources: https://www.transportation.gov/office-policy/transportation-policy/revised-departmental-guidance-on-valuation-of-a-statistical-life-in-economic-analysis | https://www.transportation.gov/regulations/economic-values-used-in-analysis
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165.
PLOS ONE. Cost per DALY for vitamin a supplementation.
PLOS ONE: Cost-effectiveness of "Golden Mustard" for Treating Vitamin A Deficiency in India (2010) https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0012046 (2010)
India: $23-$50 per DALY averted (least costly intervention, $1,000-$6,100 per death averted) Sub-Saharan Africa (2022): $220-$860 per DALY (Burkina Faso: $220, Kenya: $550, Nigeria: $860) WHO estimates for Africa: $40 per DALY for fortification, $255 for supplementation Uganda fortification: $18-$82 per DALY (oil: $18, sugar: $82) Note: Wide variation reflects differences in baseline VAD prevalence, coverage levels, and whether intervention is supplementation or fortification Additional sources: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0012046 | https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0266495
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168.
PMC. Cost-effectiveness threshold ($50,000/QALY).
PMC https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5193154/ The $50,000/QALY threshold is widely used in US health economics literature, originating from dialysis cost benchmarks in the 1980s. In US cost-utility analyses, 77.5% of authors use either $50,000 or $100,000 per QALY as reference points. Most successful health programs cost $3,000-10,000 per QALY. WHO-CHOICE uses GDP per capita multiples (1× GDP/capita = "very cost-effective", 3× GDP/capita = "cost-effective"), which for the US ( $70,000 GDP/capita) translates to $70,000-$210,000/QALY thresholds. Additional sources: https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5193154/ | https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9278384/
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169.
Integrated Benefits Institute. Chronic illness workforce productivity loss.
Integrated Benefits Institute 2024 https://www.ibiweb.org/resources/chronic-conditions-in-the-us-workforce-prevalence-trends-and-productivity-impacts (2024)
78.4% of U.S. employees have at least one chronic condition (7% increase since 2021) 58% of employees report physical chronic health conditions 28% of all employees experience productivity loss due to chronic conditions Average productivity loss: $4,798 per employee per year Employees with 3+ chronic conditions miss 7.8 days annually vs 2.2 days for those without Note: 28% productivity loss translates to roughly 11 hours per week (28% of 40-hour workweek) Additional sources: https://www.ibiweb.org/resources/chronic-conditions-in-the-us-workforce-prevalence-trends-and-productivity-impacts | https://www.onemedical.com/mediacenter/study-finds-more-than-half-of-employees-are-living-with-chronic-conditions-including-1-in-3-gen-z-and-millennial-employees/ | https://debeaumont.org/news/2025/poll-the-toll-of-chronic-health-conditions-on-employees-and-workplaces/
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171.
Sinn, M. P.
The 1% Treaty: An Incentive-Compatible Approach to Ending War and Disease.
https://manual.warondisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact.html (2025) doi:
10.5281/zenodo.18161560 6.65 thousand diseases have zero FDA-approved treatments; at current trial capacity, exploring them takes 443 years. Redirecting 1% of military spending scales capacity 12.3x, cutting the timeline to 36 years and preventing 10.7 billion deaths. At $0.00177/DALY, 50.3kx more cost-effective than the best existing interventions. Incentive Alignment Bonds make adoption politically viable.
172.
Sinn, M. P.
Choose Your Own Earth: A World Without the Political Dysfunction Tax, or Terminal Parasitic Load in 15 Years.
https://manual.warondisease.org/knowledge/economics/gdp-trajectories.html (2025) doi:
10.5281/zenodo.19076850 Your destructive economy (military spending plus cybercrime) is already 11.5% of GDP and growing faster than your productive economy. At current rates, it reaches the Soviet collapse threshold in 8 years and exceeds productive output in 15. This paper models two GDP trajectories: the optimized path under military-to-medical reallocation, and the default path to civilizational collapse.
173.
Sinn, M. P.
The Continuous Evidence Generation Protocol: Two-Stage Validation (RWE → Pragmatic Trials).
https://manual.warondisease.org/knowledge/appendix/dfda-spec-paper.html (2025) doi:
10.5281/zenodo.18203375 We present the Predictor Impact Score (PIS), a novel composite metric operationalizing Bradford Hill causality criteria for automated signal detection from aggregated N-of-1 observational studies. Combined with pragmatic trial confirmation (based on evidence from 108+ embedded trials), this two-stage framework would generate validated outcome labels at 44.1x lower cost than traditional Phase III trials. This enables continuous, population-scale pharmacovigilance and precision dosing recommendations.
174.
Sinn, M. P.
Ubiquitous Pragmatic Trial Impact Analysis: How to Prevent a Year of Death and Suffering for 84 Cents.
https://manual.warondisease.org/knowledge/appendix/dfda-impact-paper.html (2025) doi:
10.5281/zenodo.18243914 Only 15 diseases/year get their first treatment each year. With 6.65 thousand diseases lacking effective treatments, the backlog would take 443 years to clear. Integrating pragmatic trials into standard healthcare increases trial capacity 12.3x, cutting that timeline from 443 years to 36 years. The average untreated disease gets a treatment 212 years earlier, saving 10.7 billion deaths at $0.842 per year of healthy life saved.
